Tropical Storm Watch: Elsa Update on Path Across Chesapeake Bay

Wednesday July 7 2021

Tropical Storm Elsa is inland and moving from north Florida into Georgia. The latest forecast path continues to take it across southern Maryland and the Chesapeake Bay late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Here is a look at the Wednesday afternoon tropical, storm conditions. Any local thunderstorms today are not related to Elsa… yet.

Also see the forecast for the path through Maryland, with expected rainfall and winds.

Also see the interactive wind forecast widget below.

Tropical Storm Watch

This storm will continue to weaken, and might actually be downgraded to a tropical depression before it reaches us. The ‘Watch’ means conditions with winds over 40 mph are possible, but not promised.

We still are very likely to experience:

Heavy rain and Flash Flooding
A large area with winds over 30 mph.
Wind gusts over 50 mph very possible on lower Delmarva and the beaches.
Isolated tornadoes.

Afternoon Surface Weather

Tropical Storm Elsa is well to our south. To the north, a nearly stationary front. In between high heat and a lot of thunderstorms. So there will be severe weather erupting this afternoon for different reasons.

Tropical Storm Elsa Update

National Hurricane Center Stats

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 83.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Florida Radar Loop

This circulation is impressive, and there is a lot of rain falling. AS the system weakens, it can still dump heavy rain farther up the coast.

Satellite Loop

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee 
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

Large Forecast Track

Forecast Animation: ECMWF Model

Thursday Afternoon To Friday Afternoon

Snapshots:

Early Friday Morning

Wind Forecasts

Direction and Speed

The ‘westerly’ wind component is good news for the western shore of the Bay, as the water will flow ‘away’.

The bad news is the ‘sloshing’ of water on the Eastern Shore. This is where high water and minor surge is likely.

Top Wind Gusts

Metro areas and across the Bridges, winds may exceed 30 mph.
Eastern Shore may reach the 30 to 50 mph wind range…
Beaches could briefly see wind gusts to 60 mph.

Wind Forecast Widget

*pinch map to zoom in closer.

Rainfall Forecast

My Notes

This storm will be moving faster as it passes by.

The closest pass should be overnight Thursday into early Friday… So it will be moving away during the day Friday.

Even if this is downgraded to a Tropical Depression, it can still produce flooding and isolated tornadoes.

Long Range Forecast:

This will be gone by the weekend.

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.