July 7 Weather Hot Again Today Then Tropical Storm Elsa Path Through Maryland

Wednesday July 7 2021

Another day with high heat reaching the upper 90s, but cooler 80s on the corners in the mountains and by the ocean. Tropical Storm Elsa continues to dominate attention as it will make landfall in north Florida this morning.

Morning Surface Weather

The track of Elsa now appears to cross west of Ocean City through southern Maryland. This will bring heavy rain and severe conditions overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

More on that below…

Weather Almanac: Climate Data

TODAY July 7

Normal Low in Baltimore: 67ºF

Record 53ºF in 1980

Normal High in Baltimore: 87ºF

Record 104 F 2012

Afternoon Temperature Forecast

Almost a repeat of yesterday:

High Temperatures reaching the upper 90s, but could top 100ºF on some thermometers. It will ‘feel’ hotter than this with high humidity.

Cooler 80s on the corners in the Garrett County mountains and on the ocean beaches.

Radar Snapshot Today

Slight chance of showers developing in metro areas and in the front range mountains.

These will be spotty and based on subtle ripples in the atmosphere, so these plots are not perfect.

Tropical Storm Elsa

After briefly back as a hurricane last night, Elsa is down to a 65 mph tropical storm this morning. Wind gusts are up to 75 mph though.

It is passing close to Cedar Key, north of Tampa.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Radar Loop

Parts of Florida have already received over 9 inches of rain…

Tropical Satellite Loop

There does appear to be some regeneration of convection. The flare up of clouds suggests this is still trying to regain hurricane intensity. It will also suggest tornadoes are more likely within the stronger bands.

Large NHC Forecast Map

The track keeps this as a Tropical Storm even with a full day track inland.

Florida Impact

Watches and Warnings

 A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River,
including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to Englewood
* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to 
Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

South and North Carolina

Mid Atlantic Pass

The subtle change in forward speed has shifted the track a little west. This is now expected to pass west of Ocean City. This will cross the Chesapeake Bay in southern Maryland.

ECWMF Model

This plot shows the impact of heavy rain even in to metro Baltimore.

Winds will likely be minimal tropical storm, in the 40 mph range. But high waves, heavy rain, and isolated low level tornadoes are possible.

Forecast Animation

7 Day Forecast

In Case You Missed It:

Storm Video Top Shelf Cloud Photos and Damage July 1

Two Tornadoes Confirmed By NWS

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.