Tropical Storm Warning: Elsa Forecast Through Maryland Tonight

Thursday July 8 2021

Tropical Storm Elsa is moving through South Carolina this morning and continues on a path in our direction. The radar you can see below is really impressive.

The inland track usually would weaken the storm, but upper level energy will give this a boost as it passes by on to New England Friday.

Morning Surface Weather

A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for southern Maryland and the beaches through Delmarva.

The main part of the storm will pass through overnight and be gone by Friday morning. However we will see pop up storms ahead of it this afternoon, and more storms following on Friday afternoon.

Here is a look forecast maps to help break down what to expect, including timing, rainfall, wind, and interactive wind widget.

Tropical Storm Elsa Update

National Hurricane Center Stats

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 81.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

South Carolina Radar Loop

5 AM to 7 AM

This circulation is impressive. Within that spin are bands of locally very heavy downpours and embedded tornadoes possible (EF 1 and EF2).

Tropical Storm Warning

This storm still might actually be downgraded to a depression before reaching us, then gain strength as it heads to Mew England.

The ‘Warning’ means conditions are still likely on Delmarva, but a sharp cut off near I-95 and the cities.

With this event will likely see:

Heavy rain and Flash Flooding
A large area with winds over 30 mph.
Wind gusts over 50 mph very possible on lower Delmarva and the beaches.
Isolated tornadoes.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

Forecast Animation: ECMWF Model

Snapshots:

Early Friday Morning

Local Look: NAM 3Km Model

Reminder: This model continues to underperform, so the activity may be more widespread than shown here.

Thursday Afternoon

Some pop up storms will develop well ahead of the Elsa. Like yesterday, some may be severe (high winds, large hail).

Overnight

The path through Maryland is likely within a few hours of midnight.

The core of the rain and main storm may only be 50 to 100 miles across.

The storm will be out of here by sunrise!

Wind Forecasts

Direction and Speed

The ‘westerly’ wind component is good news for the western shore of the Bay, as the water will flow ‘away’.

The bad news is the ‘sloshing’ of water on the Eastern Shore. This is where high water and minor surge is likely.

Top Wind Gusts

Metro areas and across the Bridges, winds may exceed 30 mph.
Eastern Shore may reach over 50 mph…
Beaches could briefly see wind gusts to 70 mph.

Local Simulation Loop

Thursday Afternoon to Friday morning.

Friday Afternoon

Long after the storm moves away, a line of thunderstorms will arrive in metro areas.

Rainfall Forecast

Comparing the European and GFS Models

Wind Forecast Widget

*pinch map to zoom in closer.

Recap Notes:

Pop Up Thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, but not directly related to Elsa
The closest pass should be overnight within a few hours of midnight…
This will be gone by daybreak Friday.
More thunderstorms arrive Friday afternoon, not from Elsa.
This storm will be speeding up as it passes by.
It may strengthen as it turns extra tropical in New England.
Even if this is briefly downgraded to a Tropical Depression, it can still produce flooding and isolated tornadoes.

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.