Severe Thunderstorm Watch Expanded To Maryland Tonight

Evening Update Monday June 14 2021

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place for Pennsylvania and western Maryland has been expanded east and south. If you read my prior report, this was expected as the environment is primed to reignite the storms over metro Baltimore.

See the set up and compare to the simulation to the lie radar below.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:

Until 9 PM in PA
Until 2 AM Tuesday – Central Maryland to Delmarva

The main risk will be damaging winds and flash flooding. However there will also be some dangerous lightning and the potential for pockets of large hail.

Metro areas will experience this between 9 PM and 11 PM, then it will cross south of Annapolis and to Delmarva overnight.

Evening Surface Weather

Radar Loop:

5:35 PM to 7:35 PM

The initial line of storms broke up as suggested in my prior report. Now we watch it reignite over central Maryland over the next few hours.

CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy

This is a calculation that can help determine if storms can turn severe. When the levels reach above 1000 J/Kg, there is support for severe storms (high winds, hail, etc). When levels reach above 2,500 J/kg the atmosphere is primed for severe storms to be likely.

Temperatures at 9 PM

There will be a colder air mass helping to instigate the atmosphere. Look at the contrast form near 80ºF to the 50s.

Wind Direction

I have often pointed out the when winds are FROM the Southeast, it can help enhance any storm risk for metro Baltimore. This is due to the added moisture flow off of the Chesapeake Bay and uplifting as that air rides inland and interacts with a frontal boundary.

Radar Simulation

This is the hand off from the initial ‘Watch’ shown above to the second phase I expect tonight.

We need to see how much the first line may fade. It when it reaches Maryland, that is when it should retire.

Timing in metro Baltimore between 9 PM and 11 PM (assuming this model continues to be off). Bay areas and Delmarva will get the line tonight through 4 AM

—-> slider

LIVE RADAR Widget

Also New Today

Tropical Depression Two Formed Off Of NC Coast

Sunshine State Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.