April 17 Self Destructing Sunshine The Brief Warming In Cool Pattern

Saturday April 17 2021

Did you get frost this morning? The sky cleared out and temps did drop into the 30s for many inland areas west of the Bay. We are in a pattern where cloudy afternoons, and clear nights help reinforce the chill.

Morning Low Temperatures

BWI bottomed out at 37ºF

Morning Surface Weather

Low Pressure off of the New England coast that was responsible for their snow, is still churning up chilly winds.

Self Destructing Sunshine: This is a term that refers to a sunny start to a day that turns clouds. This credits the chilly air with moisture off of the Great Lakes interacting with high angle sun.

The morning sun forces the air to rise. This reaches the very cold air aloft, and quickly condenses. The result produces clouds during the day, then clears again as the sun goes down.

Weather Almanac: Climate Data For Baltimore

Normal Low in Baltimore: 43ºF; Record 26ºF in 1962

Normal High in Baltimore: 65ºF, Record 93ºF 2002

Afternoon Temperatures

There could be a brief sprinkle or shower…

Forecast Snapshot

Clearing again tonight. Tomorrow will be a little warmer, but another weather system will bring a chance for a brief shower Sunday night.

Sunday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Storm Animation: Sunday to Monday morning

Temperature Outlooks (Compare Models)

The longer range outlook of temps really depends on what model you look at, and even what aspect of that model.

Ensembles: Computer models run many different variations of what may happen. The ‘Ensemble’ is the average of all of them.

Deterministic: This is the version of the model that has been chosen to be the most likely. It doesn’t always match the final result.

Compare these and see how much they can vary, especially father out in time:

ECMWF Model:

The Ensemble is cooler than the Deterministic with a spread next Tuesday from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

GFS Model:

This also shows a spread of nearly 10 degrees next Tuesday.

Then look at the longer range, where the Ensemble keeps the 60s into early May, but the Deterministic brings in the 80s!!!

Explore More:

Sunshine Sate Of Mind

I am done with the cold and snow (for the season). I am embracing my wife’s mantra of Sunshine State of Mind.

This was designed by Shannon Berk and we will be wearing it through spring and to the beach.

Double Benefit: Proceeds will be split between our nonprofit Just In Power Kids and the development of my new weather website. That has been scheduled to be ready to launch in May.