Storm Recap And Grade My Forecast For February 18 to 19

This might be best known as a sleet storm, and it was the most many in our area have ever seen.  I said this would be the largest impact storm of the winter and it lived up to it, just not the way I fully expected.

Baltimore at BWI recorded 0.58″ liquid equivalent for the two day storm between February 18 and 19.  If that was all typical snow, it would have been nearly 6 inches. If just the first 3 hours were the fluffy snow I mentioned, it would have easily surpassed expectations.  However, it was sleet that dominated for many. It added up to an inch or more, which is quite rare and not easy forecast!

I have to give credit to one person who first identified this was going to be more sleet at the start. I’ll show you in a moment.

 

Regional Snow From NWS Spotters for the Sterling VA Office

Below Please compare My Final Call forecast to the local County Maps and log your grade for my forecast.

 

 

The night before this storm began I made a big point to highlight the initial surge of moisture and the cold temperatures that would lead to higher ratios.  I still stand by that, and that actually happened!  Heavy snow was reported within minutes of if beginning. Westminster was an example where they had 3 inches of snow in the first 90 minutes. That snow was fluffy and didn’t pack well. But it didn’t last, and they spend much of Thursday morning after sunrise switching back and forth from sleet to snow.

The layer of warm air in the atmosphere around 5,000 Ft up was what melted the snowflakes, then they refroze below on the way down, resulting in heavy sleet. This became evident as it began in metro Baltimore.

Who got that right?

My buddy and long lost Big Brother Tony Pann saw this shaping up the night before it began.

 

From LWX: “00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level.” What does that mean? Change over to sleet might be quicker, unless the dry air that’s in place can trigger enough cooling at that level to support more snow. I know, it’s all Greek to me too. 😉❄️🚂

— Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) February 18, 2021

 

I didn’t want to give full credit to that sounding. First, it was over Sterling, VA and I felt central Maryland was deeper into the cold air.

I did  show it in my morning report when I announced I was wrong as the storm began. I really had expected the dry air to let the storm dynamically cool that layer and work it out.

SOUNDINGS

Plotting weather conditions from weather balloon launches twice a day. IAD is the code fro Sterling, VA. This is the home of the National Weather Service Office by Dulles Airport.

Wednesday Night 7 PM (00Z)

 

Thursday Morning 7 AM (12Z)

 

 

 

This is one of those times where I clearly state my expectations with realization were I was wrong. What you see is how you might grade me, but considering the entirety of the storm, there was still a lot that went right. If you prepared for snow and a lot of ice over two days, then it paid off.

 

Storm Surface Maps —-> slider

My Final Call For Snowfall

• My Heavy Ice Zone was spot on, but needed to be expanded farther north,. 
• Many in my 6″ to 12″  high zone hit or got close to 6″.  I did overplay this north of York.
• Elkton, Bel Air,  to Mt. Airy was on the edge of my 4″ to 6″. The location of the word might be deceptive. 
• Washington and Annapolis:  I put them on the edge of 2″ to 4″ on purpose. The location of the word might be deceptive. 

 

 

NWS Final Call For Snowfall

I wanted to show you that I had a lower end to my ranges for most of Maryland than NWS showed here the night before. hestomrm hit.

 

 

What went right With My Forecast:

• Two Days and Two Part Storm
• Lots of Ice On Top Of Snow
• Results in ‘Parts’ of central and western Maryland, Southern Maryland and Delmarva

 

What Went Wrong With My Forecast:

• The faster change to sleet and freezing rain.  I mentioned this right as it began in my Thursday morning report. I said I was wrong, but it was too late for many who wanted to measure more snow.
• I was even wrong reporting I was wrong, because the storm was still producing snow in the colder northern suburbs and Southern PA. But just barely at the 6 inch mark.  Also, southern areas got what was expected with ice, and ending with some snow.
• Results: Central/Metro areas I had 4” to 6” but ended up 1” to 3”
• Results in northern Maryland and Southern PA: I had 6” to 12”, many hit the 6” mark… so you can mark that as a win, but it barely got there.

 

Grade My Forecast

C <—– My grade for my work.

    

The Sleet Vs Snow was a big deal, but the extent of this storm, plus the accuracy in the northern and southern/eastern areas helped salvage this.

If you grade based on just snow totals, then this adds to a growing list of failed storms from Kent Island To Cecil County. I hear you loud and clear!

Please enter your honest grade for my forecast. See the local maps and spotter reports below.

Polling/Grading Open Until 11:59 PM Sun Feb 21

 

 

Local Snow Spotter Maps And Reports

Northeast Maryland: Harford and Cecil Counties

My Forecast Zones: Low End 4″ High End 12″

…Harford County…

  Forest Hill 1 NNW       3.8   420 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Scarboro 2 E            3.0   837 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Forest Hill 3 SW        2.8   800 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Fallston 2 ESE          1.8   800 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Bel Air 2 E             1.5  1100 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Havre De Grace 4 WNW    1.1  1000 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS               

  Abingdon 1 SE           1.0   124 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Abingdon                0.5  1110 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

…Cecil County…

  Woodlawn 2 E            2.0   130 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Woodlawn 2 ENE          1.5   140 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Elkton 5 NW             1.4   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

 

 

Baltimore County/City

My Forecast Zones: Low End 4″ High End 12″

 

…Baltimore County…

  Norrisville 3 W         5.5   100 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Bentley Springs 1 E     5.5  1130 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Reisterstown 1 NW       4.8   700 PM  2/18  CoCoRaHS               

  Pimlico 1 NW            2.8   910 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Jacksonville 2 NE       2.3   858 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Long Green 1 SW         2.2   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Cockeysville 2 WNW      2.0  1203 PM  2/18  Broadcast Media        

  Long Green 2 NW         1.5  1230 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  White Marsh 2 ESE       1.2   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Perry Hall 1 NNE        1.0   345 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Edgemere  ESE           1.0  1124 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Perry Hall 1 SW         1.0  1135 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Upper Falls 1 NNE       0.7  1230 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Kingsville 1 E          0.7   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

…Baltimore City…

  Pimlico  SE             2.0   200 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Mount Washington 1 N    1.2   750 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Arlington 1 NNW         0.8   707 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

 

 

North Central Maryland: Frederick and Carroll Counties

My Forecast Zones: Low End 6″ High End 12″

 

…Frederick County…

  Bloomfield 2 WSW        6.3  1100 AM  2/18  NWS Employee           

  Emmitsburg 2 SE         6.0   615 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Myersville 2 ENE        6.0  1125 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Sabillasville 1 NNW     5.8  1130 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS               

  New Market 3 NNW        5.7   730 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Frederick 1 SW          5.0   830 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Myersville 2 SE         5.0  1100 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Union Bridge 7 SSW      4.7   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Thurmont 1 SSE          4.5  1000 AM  2/18  CoCoRaHS               

  Thurmont 3 N            4.5   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Sabillasville 2 SSE     4.0   900 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Point of Rocks 1 NE     2.7   100 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  New Market 2 NW         2.5   900 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  New Market  N           2.0   320 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Adamstown 1 ESE         1.9   100 PM  2/18  NWS Employee    

…Carroll County…

  Millers 4 NE            6.3   600 PM  2/18  Co-Op Observer         

  Wagners Mill 1 ENE      6.0  1210 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Uniontown 2 S           5.0   941 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Westminster  SE         4.0  1230 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Eldersburg 1 SE         1.5   700 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Eldersburg 1 E          1.5   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Gamber 1 WNW            1.1  1200 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Gamber 1 W              1.1   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Sykesville 6 NNW        0.2   800 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS        

 

Western Maryland: Garrett, Allegany, and Washington Counties

My Forecast Zones: Low End 4″ High End 12″

 

…Garrett County…

  Mc Henry 4 SW           5.2   600 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  McHenry 5 SSE           4.2   800 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Warnocks 4 NW           4.0   700 AM  2/19  HADS                   

  Bloomington 3 WNW       3.8   200 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Mountain Lake Park      3.5   600 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS         

..Allegany County…

  Cresaptown-Bel Air 1    3.8   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Frostburg               3.5   700 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Cumberland              2.9   700 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Cresaptown  SSW         2.6  1045 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Ridgeley 1 NW           2.5   427 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

…Washington County…

  Boonsboro 3 NNE         5.4   600 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Sharpsburg 5 S          5.2   700 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Fairplay 3 ENE          4.7   530 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Long Meadow 2 W         3.6   700 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Hagerstown 4 NNW        3.6   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Hagerstown 1 ENE        3.6   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Hancock 1 ESE           3.5   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Williamsport 3 ENE      3.5   600 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Pecktonville 3 NNW      2.9   700 AM  2/19  NWS Employee           

  Long Meadow 1 SSE       2.5   110 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter      

 

 

Capital Region: Montgomery, Howard, and Washington DC

My Forecast Zones: Low End 2″ High End 6″ Also: Heavy Ice On Top Of Snow

 

…Montgomery County…

  Laytonsville 2 WNW      2.2   727 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Clarksburg 1 SSE        1.8  1200 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Laytonsville 5 NNW      1.7   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Rockville 3 NNW         1.7   100 PM  2/18  NWS Employee           

  Poolesville  NE         1.5   315 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Garrett Park 2 NW       1.5   400 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Damascus 3 SSW          1.5   700 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Montgomery Village 1    1.4   630 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Germantown 5 NNE        1.4   600 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Germantown 2 WSW        1.3  1230 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Gaithersburg 3 NE       1.1   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Colesville 1 NNW        1.1   800 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Norbeck 1 ESE           1.1   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Damascus 1 S            1.1  1233 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Takoma Park 1 NNW       1.0   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Aspen Hill 1 SW         0.9   730 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Leesburg 4 NE           0.8   130 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Bethesda                0.8   112 PM  2/18  County Emrg Mgmt       

  Potomac 1 NNW           0.8   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Dickerson 7 SW          0.8   730 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Olney 1 ENE             0.8   630 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Colesville 2 W          0.8   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Garrett Park 1 ENE      0.7  1100 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Rossmoor 1 ESE          0.7   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Silver Spring 6 NNE     0.7   546 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Somerset 1 ENE          0.5   117 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  White Oak 1 N           0.4   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS              

…Howard County…

  Granite 1 SSE           3.0   100 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Sykesville 2 SSE        1.8   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Columbia 2 N            1.7   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Simpsonville 2 NNW      1.5   647 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Simpsonville  E         1.5   500 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Glenelg 2 N             1.3  1200 PM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Brinklow 1 ENE          1.2  1138 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Oella 1 NW              1.2  1130 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Marriottsville 3 S      1.1   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Columbia                1.0  1230 PM  2/18  NWS Employee           

  Columbia 2 NE           1.0   300 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia 2 NW           1.0   100 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia 1 NE           1.0   215 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Elkridge 2 W            1.0  1115 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Savage 1 N              1.0  1200 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Laurel 1 NNE            0.9   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Elkridge                0.9  1230 PM  2/18  NWS Employee          

…District of Columbia…

  Dalecarlia Reservoir    0.8   800 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  National Arboretum      0.6   800 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

 

 

Anne Arundel County

My Forecast Zones: Low End 2″ High End 6″ Also: Heavy Ice On Top Of Snow

 

  Pasadena 3 ESE          1.7   800 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Deale 1 SE              1.5   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Churchton  ENE          1.2   105 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Crofton 2 NNE           1.2  1200 PM  2/18  NWS Employee           

  Severn 2 W              1.2   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Chelsea Beach           1.1  1200 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Bwi Airport             1.0   100 PM  2/19  Airport                

  Pasadena 1 ENE          1.0   242 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Annapolis 1 NNW         1.0  1100 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Annapolis 1 SE          1.0   750 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Odenton 1 S             0.6   459 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Glen Burnie 1 WSW       0.6   300 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Severn 1 SSE            0.6   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Severn 2 E              0.6   810 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Odenton 1 WNW           0.6   447 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Odenton 1 N             0.5   730 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Severna Park            0.5   130 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

 

Southern Maryland

My Forecast Zones: Low End 2″ High End 4″  Also: Heavy Ice On Top Of Snow

 

…Calvert County…

  Tracys Landing 2 WSW    1.5  1201 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Huntingtown 3 SSW       1.0   300 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Huntingtown 3 NNW       1.0   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  North Beach 2 WNW       1.0   730 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Prince Frederick 1 S    0.8  1120 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter

…Charles County…

  Waldorf 3 S             2.4   800 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Dentsville 1 SW         1.5  1130 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  St. Charles 1 SSE       1.5  1120 AM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

  Hughesville 2 ENE       1.4  1140 AM  2/19  Trained Spotter        

  Nanjemoy 5 S            1.0   300 PM  2/18  CoCoRaHS               

  Port Tobacco Village    1.0   700 PM  2/18  CoCoRaHS               

…Prince Georges County…

  Beltsville 1 SW         1.8   800 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Brandywine 7 ESE        1.5   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Bowie 4 S               1.2   700 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  Oxon Hill 1 SW          1.0   800 AM  2/19  Co-Op Observer         

  Oxon Hill 1 W           1.0   800 AM  2/19  CoCoRaHS               

  College Park 1 ENE      0.5   500 PM  2/18  Trained Spotter        

 

 

Southern Pennsylvania

My Forecast Zones: Low End 6″ High End 12″ 

 

 

…York County…

Stewartstown 0.5 S           9.0 in    0700 AM 02/19   COCORAHS

New Freedom                  6.5 in    1100 AM 02/18   Public

Shrewsbury                   6.0 in    1240 PM 02/18   Public

1 NE Felton                  5.3 in    0100 PM 02/18   Public

2 SE Parkville               4.8 in    0130 PM 02/18   Trained Spotter

New Salem                    3.5 in    1120 AM 02/18   Trained Spotter

Spring Grove                 3.3 in    0203 PM 02/18   Trained Spotter

Manchester                   3.1 in    1110 AM 02/18   Trained Spotter

Manchester 3.6 W             3.1 in    0700 AM 02/19   COCORAHS

York 2.5 NNW                 3.1 in    0700 AM 02/19   COCORAHS

Dover 4.2 WSW                3.0 in    0445 AM 02/19   COCORAHS

East Berlin 3.4 ESE          2.8 in    0600 AM 02/19   COCORAHS

…Lancaster County…

Quarryville                  8.0 in    0200 PM 02/18   Public

3 E Smithville               6.0 in    1100 AM 02/18   Public

2 WNW Wakefield              5.8 in    1215 PM 02/18   Public

Gap                          5.8 in    0404 PM 02/18   Trained Spotter

2 NNE Mount Joy              4.3 in    1109 AM 02/18

Millersville                 4.2 in    1232 PM 02/18   Trained Spotter

Mount Joy                    4.0 in    1230 PM 02/18   Public

New Holland                  3.5 in    1015 AM 02/18   CO-OP Observer

1 S Willow Street            3.5 in    1047 AM 02/18   Trained Spotter

1 W Rothsville               3.4 in    1245 PM 02/18   Public

 

 

Delmarva

My Forecast Zones: Low End UP TO 2″ High End 6″ Also: Heavy Ice On Top Of Snow

 

…Maryland…

…Caroline County…

4 SSE Ingleside              2.0 in    1245 PM 02/18   Trained Spotter      

…Queen Annes County…

Crumpton                     2.0 in    0324 PM 02/18   Public               

2 SW Stevensville            1.2 in    0700 AM 02/19   CO-OP Observer       

…Delaware…

…Kent County…

1 SSE Woodside               1.2 in    0115 PM 02/18   Trained Spotter      

West Dover                   1.1 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

4 S Hazlettville             1.0 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

1 ESE Dover                  1.0 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

2 S Smyrna Landing           1.0 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

4 SW Felton                  1.0 in    0345 PM 02/18   Public               

Smyrna                       1.0 in    1250 PM 02/18   Public               

Woodside                     1.0 in    1212 PM 02/18   Trained Spotter      

1 S Harrington               0.7 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

2 SE Frederica               0.5 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet       

…New Castle County…

Bellefonte                   2.9 in    0506 AM 02/19   Public               

Hockessin                    2.5 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

Winterthur                   2.2 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

White Clay Creek             1.9 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

1 E Ashbourne Hills          1.8 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

Monroe Park                  1.6 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

1 SW West Park               1.6 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

New Castle County Airport    1.5 in    0100 PM 02/19   ASOS                 

Middletown                   1.5 in    0915 AM 02/19   Trained Spotter      

1 WNW Port Penn              1.3 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

1 SSE Newark                 1.3 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

1 E Glasgow                  1.2 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

1 NW Midvale                 1.2 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

2 NE Blackbird               1.1 in    0230 PM 02/19   Mesonet              

Bear                         1.0 in    0308 PM 02/18   Public        

 

 

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