Sunday Morning February 21

This morning we bottomed out in this cold spell. Baltimore at BWI reached 19ºF, the first time in the teens since January 30. There were a lot of teens, west of the Bay, with single digits in far western Maryland and York,  PA.  Across the water, much of Delmarva were in the 20s.

Morning Low Temperatures 

February 21 Weather Sunday Low Temperatures



Sunday Morning Weather

We remain cold and quiet today, but the next weather maker is on the map and will race in here with a burst of snow Monday morning. But this is the end of the pattern. We warm significantly by mid week!


February 21 weather snow morning



Afternoon Temperatures


February 22 weather temperatures Sunday Afternoon


Monday Morning Snow

I am still cautious about the timing. Most models have the snow into metro areas by 10 AM. But we have had a history of early arrivals all winter. Just a fee hours can make all the difference with commute and school busses (where they are in person).

GFS Model —-> slider


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Other Global Models show precipitation in 3 hour blocks… They are not in place at 7 AM, but jump too 10 AM and here is what we see…


European Model: Snow in place already by 10 AM

February 22 weather snow ECMWF Monday 10 AM



Canadian Model: Snow in place already by 10 AM

February 22 weather snow Canadian Monday 10 AM


Temperatures will also be right on the edge of freezing. Once the snow begins, they burst will last a few hours into early afternoon as temperatures are warming.

The Higher Resolution NAM 3 Km Model shows the change over at Noon


February 22 weather snow NAM Monday 12 PM


Temperature Timeline —-> slider

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How Much Snow?

This is just the GFS Model to give you an idea.  I still think we are in for a 1 to 3 inch snow, but slushy coating on the southern end with wet pavement.  I will refine this in my next report.

Will We Get A Winter Weather Advisory?

I believe this qualifies. If The National Weather Service  posts them, it would come this afternoon.  Assuming that happens it would surely be for the normally inland counties and maybe metro Baltimore/I-95.

However, Annapolis to Washington I think will have minimal impact from this based on timing after sunrise and temps at or above freezing.  Even a burst of snow should result in a little slush or wet roads after 10 AM.

February 22 Snowfall GFS





Last Storm Recap: Feb 18 to 19

If you missed it, please see my Storm Recap and Grade My Forecast.



Warming Up!

Here’s the temperature outlook, showing our approach to near 60ºF on Wednesday, but another warming trend to follow.  This is spring trying to come in, but winter will not give up it’s grip yet.  March is set up to be a very active month.

February 21 weather temperature outlook




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