February 17 Cold Air Has Returned And Set Up For Winter Storm Tomorrow

Wednesday February 17 2021

Morning Update

This morning you will feel the cold air. This is just the edge of the arctic blast dominating the country, but it is just enough to chill the pavement and support the snow and ice on the way tomorrow. In just one day there will be a lot of stickage impacting travel for the region.

Here is the latest storm timeline. Please keep in mind that some areas to the north may remain mostly snow, while central and southern counties will mix in freezing rain for an ice storm. Also, these recent storms have raced in sooner and hit a little harder.

Morning Surface Weather

Two parts of the system will be coming together/phasing to make one larger storm. The southern part will dominate, which is why we expect a colder track with more snow and ice in the Mid Atlantic.

Morning Temperatures

Winter Storm Watch/Warning

The ‘Warning’ for VA was upgraded by The National Weather Service since snow and ice will arrive in that region earlier.

We should have upgrades to a Warning at some point this morning now that we are within 24 hours of star of this storm.

Quick Cast: Focus Central Maryland

Today: Clear and cold

Thursday: Cold Enough For Road Stickage!

3 AM to 6 AM Snow Begins
7 AM to 11 AM: Heavy Snow
Noon to 4 PM: Mix or change to Freezing Rain.
Bust Potential: If the storm stays colder, snow would last longer and pile higher

Thursday Night: Icy! Sharp line between ice and snow

Friday: Snow showers linger

New Storm Timeline

ECMWF Model —-> slider

I continue to think this model has handled the storm best. There may be a lull, then return of snow/freezing rain that lingers as showers on Friday.

How Much? Snow Vs. Ice Factor!

I believe many model snow maps confuse ice with their snow totals… I have considered that in my map. I will show the new model maps later this morning.

ICE Storm: NWS Maps

Explore More: Please click here or the image for all local National Weather Service snow and ice maps