Tuesday Evening February 16

After a mild day in the 40s, the return of arctic air is already underway tonight. It will be back on full force when we wake up. It does look like that extensive snow and ice will help the air mass (and storm) push a little farther east.  We’ve discussed this over the past few days, and now it looks like reality.

Temperatures at 10 PM Tuesday

The cold air is advancing back in a hurry.

February 16 weather temperatures 10 PM



I’ve been getting questions asking what the models are showing for our snow. Before getting to that, I wanted to show you the temperature trend over the next few days.  Yes, Baltimore and Washington will both establish the cold Wednesday and stay below freezing on Thursday.


Temperature Highlights —> slider

The cold air on Wednesday will help to chill the pavement back down to support stickage on Thursday.


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Snow/Ice Storm Snapshot

Quick Cast: 

Wednesday: Temps stay near or below freezing


  • Snow starts before sunrise. A few hours in daylight will bring heavy snow.
  • Mixing with sleet and freezing rain from south to north.
  • Metro areas should change over early in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Freezing Rain in the cities, but northern areas near and north of the PA line may remain snow.

Friday Morning: Ending with Freezing Rain or Snow Showers.

February 16 weather Thursday snow ice



GFS Model Update

The afternoon run of the GFS trended even colder. Here we even see it picking up where the Canadian model left off in my last report.

Snow still changed to sleet and freezing rain in the cities, but may end with brief snow early Friday.  If you recall, the Canadian GEM Model linger snow into Friday night.

February 16 new snow GFS


Winter Storm Watch

The Upgrade to Warning Or Advisory should be posted Wednesday morning.


Winter Storm Watch February 18


How Much Snow May Fall?

Compare these other forecasts to my First Call For Snowfall Map

February 16 My First Call For Snowfall Thursday


Let’s Start With The National Weather Service

Here is the map for Maryland. Both Snow and Heavy Ice.

Note: These maps were issued a few hours after my ‘first call’.


Click here or on the image to see maps for Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey

February 16 snow storm forecast NWS Maryland


February 16 snow storm ice forecast NWS Maryland


GFS Model

February 16 snow storm forecast GFS model


European ECMWF Model

February 16 snow storm forecast ECMWF model


Canadian GEM Model

February 16 snow storm forecast Canadian model


For Contrast, Here is the NAM 12Km on the Low End

February 16 snow storm forecast NAM model




Next Update on Wednesday Morning.





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