Thursday February 4 2021

There are two weather systems to watch over the next from days, then the arctic arrival next week.   The first system will be Friday morning. A light wintry mix with marginal temps and ends quickly. I have details on that here.  Also,  the second system for Sunday. It was just two days ago that this looked like a big storm, then models lost it.  Now, we play weather ping pong as it has come back in our sights again.


Friday Morning

  • Timeline: Between Midnight and 10 AM
  • Precipitation: Light mix of snow, sleet, and rain.
  • Temperatures: Mostly in the mid 30s.
  • How Much: Maybe a Coating to 1/2 inch
  • Road Impact: Minimal, if at all.


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Summary between 4 AM 10 AM


February 4 weather Friday snow


Coldest Temperatures at 8 AM


February 4 weather Friday temperatures


Sunday Snow?

Compare the NAM 12Km to the GFS, and The Canadian.

February 4 weather snow Superbowl Sunday Models



As I war writing this, the new European Model just displayed.

This also has come back to show the snow back into our region.


February 4 weather Sunday snow ECMWF



I do not like flipping back and forth.  I did think the abrupt loss of the storm, might have been some bad info from the models.  I do not want to get your hopes up, but also should make you aware that there is still some potential to track.

The good news is that if anything does materialize, it will be a one day event, and end by Sunday night.

How did these models do with the last storm?

NAM (the higher resolution 3 KM): Led the charge to cut off the Part 2 snow for us.  It was wrong.

GFS: Actually did pretty well with the entire event.

Canadian: This led the way with the 2 Ft + snow, but had it initially in our area. They shifted it abruptly north and wobbled with each run.


ECWMF Model: This model also handled the 2-Part dynamics pretty well.


Storm Animations

NAM 12 Km

The most aggressive potential 

February 4 Snow Superbowl Sunday NAM



GFS Model 

More reasonable potential

February 4 Snow Superbowl Sunday GFS



Take Away

Don’t get too exited yet… However, we still have something to watch. I’d like to see one more consecutive model run to make sure this is not another blip.

It is looking more like there may have been bad data that caused the blip to miss the storm…

How Much Snow?  Ha! I would not even venture until we can solidify this is going to happen first.

With the timing of the two pieces coming together and phasing, a storm forming would have two results to focus on:

  1.  Snow potential increasing Sunday
  2. Arctic Air would have a force to pull it in sooner.



Earlier Arctic Timeline

If the storm verifies, we may bring the cold air in earlier…


February 4 weather temperature outlook




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