Tuesday February 2 2021

I figured it was time to look ahead to the next two snow events on the way, even though this system is not done yet. I mean, the Groundhog did say winter was going to last 6 more weeks.  We must follow his lead. (Ha!)

Snow showers have been persistent this evening on the very back side of that coastal storm.  This is the 3rd day of a drawn out event and it is not done yet.  I had every intension of doing a wrap up of snow totals and grade my forecast, however there may be more added to the finale AND the snow reports from BWI did not include today’s powder.

Evening Surface Weather

This storm has been the gift that keeps on giving.

February 2 weather snow storm Tuesday evening



Evening Doppler Radar

Bands of snow have been dropping an additional coating up to 1 inch in spots. The most intense snow bands have been across Delmarva.

February 2 weather snow radar Tuesday evening





Regardless of what fell, melted, and stuck, refreezing will be a widespread issue Wednesday morning. 


Here’s a look at the temperatures.


February 2 weather temperature Wednesday Morning



February 2 weather temperature Wednesday Afternoon



This will be a storm passing through the Great Lakes.  We will get moisture well ahead of it in the morning. This may start with light snow and sleet… for some of us.  Warmer air will be pushed in with this and we should thaw during the day.

February 2 weather snow ice Friday morning


Closer View

February 2 weather snow ice Friday morning Maryland



Sunday Storm?

Does this look familiar?

I have talked many times about Atmospheric Memory, and a snapshot of the next storm might look like the same thing. It is not!  This should be one single Low moving up the coast, and moving out all in the same day.   But there is a weakness in the atmosphere that this Low Pressure Center will want to follow.

February 2 weather storm Sunday ECMWF




Estimated Storm Timeline —-> slider

Here is how the European Model is plotting this event.

It looks like another morning arrival, with rain on Delmarva closer to the coast.


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How Much Snow?

I will not even venture this early.  I don’t think anyone should 5 days ahead of time.  There are still many things that can cause this to shift time and track, but we will follow it.



Colder Air To Follow

The main take away is that the Sunday storm should be a one day event and be followed much colder air!

A little piece of the Polar Vortex is expected to push the coldest air of the season next week.


Jet Stream Animation

This is the GFS Model, less robust with the cold air next week, but it does show it pushing in behind the weekend storm.

February 2 weather jet stream polar vortex


Temperature Outlook

The European Model is much more aggressive with the polar air than the GFS. That might be why this might look colder than your favorite weather app.

February 2 Weather Temperature Outlook



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