January 30 Weather My Call For Snowfall Sunday To Tuesday

Saturday Morning January 3 2021

The stage is set with cold air and a two part snow storm. If you have Faith in the Flakes or even some doubt: It is really going to snow. Low Pressure is located in the central US this morning. It will arrive Sunday morning and it will last through Tuesday morning. It is cold enough to stick and it will be mostly snow for most of our region for most of Sunday.

This is a complex event and there are some BIG NUMBERS for snow potential on computer models. I have high confidence in a widespread 3 to 6 inches on Sunday for the region. There will be some buffer on the low and high end.

Quick Forecast For Central Maryland

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The amount of snow in the final total is all based on the second coastal Low. Where does it form and how close does it get pulled back to the coast?

I’ve considered all of this for My Call For Snowfall Map. I’ve played it conservative. As I see it now, the ‘bust’ potential in my forecast could be to the high side. That is why I added the “+” to my map. You can compare my map to the latest Models and NWS Regional Office Snow Maps.

First, let’s look at how the storm should evolve, on the European Model

Sunday Morning To Monday Morning

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CLOSER VIEW

Monday Morning To Tuesday Afternoon

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My Call For Snowfall

This is the safer lower end of guidance. There is upside potential IF that coastal Low gets pulled in closer and or lingers longer.

Model Forecast Maps

Low End: GFS Model

Middle: European ECWMF Model

High End Snow (The Big Kahuna) Pipe Dream: Canadian GEM

Why is this so high? This model develops a stronger coastal Low and brings it closer to shore. That allows the heavy snow band to establish and last longer.

National Weather Service Regional Maps

Note: This Baltimore/Washington View is ONLY UP TO MONDAY NIGHT. This does not include the entire event.

High and Low End Maps:

Click here to see my Weather Resource Page to compare all the Maps from regions, NWS Offices.

January 30 weather storm snow NWS forecast Pennsylvania

January 30 weather storm snow NWS forecast DE and NJ

Winter Storm Watch

Reminder, this will be upgraded to Warnings And Advisories very shortly. This is just a more certain expectation of snow totals as we get closer to the event.