Friday Evening January 29 2021

A Winter Storm Watch was first issued for central Maryland, however some colder counties were left out.  Those have since filled in with more agreement on the Sunday storm reaching the criteria.  This is getting more real. If you have Faith in the Flakes, this will be the biggest regional snow event in a few years.

If you felt left out, joining the party are now Carroll and Frederick Counties in Maryland and all the bordering counties in Pennsylvania. Also most of Maryland’s Eastern Shore.

Here is a quick look at what that really means, what to look for next, and the simulation for the Sunday part of the storm.



Click to

See My Call For Snowfall Map and compare to new models and NWS


Winter Storm Watch

Starting Sunday Morning- Ending Tuesday Morning

January 29 Winter Storm Watch



A Winter Storm Watch is issued when ice or snow is expected within 48 hours.  In Central Maryland for example, the forecast would include 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period. It is  little higher for the mountains.

In my prior posts, I mentioned an average of 3″ to 6″ of snow JUST FOR SUNDAY.  There will be more.


This Watch from NWS means something different depending on your location. It was issued for

  • PA to expect OVER 6″ of snow,
  • Maryland’s Hills and mountains from Carroll County westward:  4″ to 8″ of snow.
  • Northeastern and Central MD for over 5″ of snow.
  • Lower Eastern Shore: 2″ to 3″ snow.



What You May See Next

These areas will be adjusted when we are within 24 hours of the storm arriving.  According to protocol, that should be issued Saturday morning.

Then there will either be a Winter Storm ‘Warning’ or Winter Weather Advisory.


A Winter Storm Warning will be for areas still expecting 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period.


A Winter Weather Advisory will be for areas expecting 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning.


NWS Snow Forecast:

This is the map for the Baltimore/Washington Region.   

This is up to 7 PM Monday, but may not be the end of the storm.

Click on the map to see the full page including the high and low end maps for PA, DE, and NJ.

Snow Forecast National Weather Service Sunday

Radar Simulation

NAM 3 Km Animation 6 AM to 8 PM

There will still be a transition to sleet and rain for some Sunday evening. How far north that reaches is part of the complication with addition snow.  But we have high confidence on the Sunday part, then going back to all snow Monday.

January 29 snow storm animation Sunday NAM 3 Km




Compare this to the model forecasts and my original call for precipitation. 

I will have a new SNOW MAP in my Saturday Morning report.



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