January 22 2021
The first winter weather event early next week appears to be set up to arrive Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday. After our cold weekend, the ground should be sufficiently chilled to accommodate stickage or ice. But as warmer air bumps up and over our chilly air mass, there will be a mix of wintry precipitation.
Monday Arrival Of Winter Storm
This comparison of our three main models shows the split in theories. They all support mostly a freezing rain/ice event. The start is where they differ.
What falls and reaches the ground will depend on how deep the layer of cold air is when the storm arrives.
- Canadian is coldest with a few hours of snow.
- European is the middle of the road with a snow mix.
- GFS has our region with mostly freezing rain.
Compare The Model Timelines
Here is a brief look at the three model timelines. There is window between Monday afternoon and evening for the arrival, but the bulk of the event shows mostly freezing rain. We need to focus not only how cold it remains on Monday, but how deep that cold layer is to allow snow, sleet, or freezing rain.
Canadian GEM Model —-> slider
How much ice?
Forecast Precipitation for the event, but this does not determine snow, ice or rain.
European ECMWF Model —-> slider
How much ice?
Forecast Precipitation for the event, but this does not determine snow, ice or rain.
GFS (American) Model —-> slider
How much ice?
Forecast Precipitation for the event, but this does not determine snow, ice or rain.
What About Temperatures?
I am not showing the temperature forecast at this time because I do not trust any of them.
There are too many variables that need to be considered:
- How deep will the cold air be? An inversion will develop with this storm set up. That is where temperatures turn warmer with height.
- What will the wind direction be? That can help determine is there will be any warming near the water, and if so how much?
- Cold Air Dams like this often hold longer than models forecast. Especially once snow or ice is established on the ground.
Confidence grows in the specifics mentioned above within a 48 hour window of the event. So this weekend will bring that into better focus.
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