Ice Storm Warning For The Mountains New Years Day Metro Areas OK

December 31 2020

This is my final weather post of the year and we might as well go out in style talking about an ice event for the new year.  I cover a large area and need to mention this event, even though it is for the mountains.

The heaviest icing may be in far western Maryland’s Garrett and Allegheny Counties, with minor icing to Frederick, Gettysburg, and Harrisburg.  But some sleet could mix in for an hour or two in metro areas without much stickage.

If you are in central Maryland to eastern PA, timing is what may save you.  When this event first surfaced, it was to begin at daybreak. We will be at or below freezing then, but dry.  The arrival of the moisture mid day to afternoon, allows just enough time to warm a little. But the first hour or two of chilly rain could start with sleet.

New Years Day Morning Update

The trend continues: This is what I was concerned with in my recent reports.

Precipitation continues to arrive a few hours earlier than model guidance shows.   Here is what I saw at 9:15 AM, which is well ahead of the simulation in the slider below.

That allows the rain or sleet to catch up to freezing temps in parts of central MD and southern PA.

New Years Eve Set Up

It is snowing along the Texas and Mexico border.  That is where the energy for our next event is coming from.  It will ride along the front that moved through today, and push back north.

There is enough cold air that may allow for sleet to fall even in areas that make it back above freezing on Friday when it arrives.

New Years Day Morning

Ice And Rain Timeline —> slider

Notice the limited precipitation at 10 AM (first image).  That delay in the arrival is what limits the ice potential for Baltimore inland suburbs.