December 31 Weather: Chilly Rain With Inland Ice Before And After New Year

Friday December 31 2020

A narrow band of rain, sleet, and snow is slowly trying to drop south today. This is part of a cold front that will be with us over the next few days as it lingers in the region.  We have three ‘events’ between now and Sunday. Below is a look at the morning set up, wintry impact areas, and timeline.

 

Morning Surface Weather

 

 

Today it will drop south and drop temperatures into the afternoon. With it, rain mainly near and north of Baltimore. Some of that may mix with sleet inland as temps drop. Snow will fall in the mountains.

Midnight: We should be dry, and might clear out. That is important for the cold settling in.

Tomorrow on New Year’s Day it comes back north. But models delay the onset until midday.  That may push back who gets icing.  The morning appears dry, but the afternoon and night will be wet.

*The concern I have is the recent history of events starting a few hours earlier than models suggest. We need to watch the 9 AM to 11 AM time frame to see if that happens, which would bring more into the risk of (light) icing.

Weekend: Saturday warming close to 60ºF in some areas. Sunday, that coastal Low has trended north, which also pushes the cold air north, and we end up rain.

 

Icy Impact Friday

Limited impact for the northern Baltimore suburbs. But a moderate ice storm is expected in the mountains.

 

Winter Storm Watch

This is primarily for icing on Friday afternoon.

 

Weather Forecast Snapshot

This is look at central Maryland.  Temperatures will be flirting with freezing, and could be on the verge of ice in sheltered spots.

Notice the chilly 30s and 40s with rain today, tomorrow, and Sunday.

 

 

Morning Temperatures 

 

 

Morning Radar Snapshot

 

 

Today’s Rain (and stuff) Timeline —> slider

Some sleet might mix in across northern suburbs as the cold front moves through.

 

 

 

Temperatures: Trending Colder

 

 

 

New Year’s Day Ice And Rain —> slider

 

Repeat: The concern I have is the recent history of events starting a few hours earlier than models suggest. We need to watch the 9 AM to 11 AM time frame to see if that happens, which would bring more into the risk of (light) icing.

 

 

Weather Animation

This is the GFS Model, showing that Sunday coastal Low passing much closer than prior runs. This was the trend I suggested, but it also pushes the warmer air north. Or just warm enough… So we end up with a chilly rain, while snow returns to New England.

 

 

 

Temperature Outlook 

Mild for the first week of 2021, but not as warm as prior model suggestions.  We are still watching the potential Polar Vortex Split that may bring back our real winter push in the second and third week of January.

 

Tl;dr: Too long; didn’t read

Today will be chilly and most of us get rain, but remaining dry in southern Maryland and Delmarva.

Some sleet may mix in this afternoon inland from Baltimore. Midnight will be dry, but New Year’s Day will turn wet.  If the ‘stuff’ arrives after noon, it will be mostly rain with an ice storm in the mountains.  If the ‘stuff’ arrives before noon, that ice can reach the nearby suburbs.

Saturday will warm to the 50s and near 60ºF.

Sunday: More rain.