Christmas Storm Alerts For Flooding Wind Snow And Our Rain Timeline

Wednesday December 23 2020

How about a weather gift for everyone this year? That is what 2020 is serving up for us. This arctic front will bring in possible flooding, damaging winds, severe thunderstorms, icing and snow. Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction, and this year continues to prove it.

Winter Weather Folklore: “If in winter there is thunder, snow will fall in one week or under”. Perhaps we get validation on Christmas Day?  The models are now starting to hint at supporting my theory of additional snow showers to be more widespread on Friday.

I’ve written this report differently, but addressing each alert separately. Let’s take a look.

Weather Advisories
The latest alerts around the region are quite colorful representing this powerful weather system.
A quick summary below and more maps to support each element.

Temperature Timeline
The sharp contrast of air masses is the reason for this severe weather.

• Christmas Eve Night: 60s in central Maryland and Delmarva.
• Christmas Morning: Freezing Line crosses metro Baltimore before sunrise.
  (Possible Flash Freeze)
• Christmas Afternoon: Most of the state will be below freezing! 20s and Teens inland.

—-> slider

Flood Watch- Rain Totals
Rainfall Could exceed 2 inches in Central Maryland, Central PA, and Northern Virginia

Flooding may be added along the coastline as well.

Wind Advisory – Peak Winds
Wind Gusts from 50 to 65 mph possible near The Chesapeake Bay across Delmarva to the beaches.

Thunderstorms (Some Severe)
The K-index values over 30 indicate there may be some storms with severe parameters.

Some of the storms Thursday night could contain winds over 60 mph and isolated tornadoes. Any hail or sleet could be confused for each other along the arctic front overnight. This is when the cold air aloft may infiltrate.

See the simulation slider timeline below.

“If in winter there is thunder, snow will fall in one week or under”: See more Winter Weather Folklore

Winter Storm Watch/Warning
Potential Snow Total

• Heavy snow may reach up to 8 inches in Garrett County MD and this high mountains of West Virginia.
• Additional snowfall shows up across the map into Baltimore suburbs and even Southern Maryland.

This is the ‘hint’ that supports the Max I have been showing the past few nights.
I still expect snow showers and maybe squalls Christmas afternoon and overnight. This could coat the ground with a dusting to nearly 1 inch in a few lucky spots.

Rain Timeline

Christmas Eve Day

Morning: Showers begin to enter metro areas. Steady rain more likely along the mountains.

Early Afternoon: Steady rain into the cities and I-95 corridor.  Heavier cells develop in the mountains.

Radar Simulation —> slider

5 PM Thursday to 2 AM Friday

Watch the heavier bands of rain (yellow/orange) slowly move east.  Then the transition to icy mix (pink) and snow (blue) arriving in the mountains by midnight.