Christmas Eve Storm Update And Wind Advisory Expanded To Baltimore

December 24 2020

It’s Christmas Eve and the storm is on our doorstep.  The expectations have increased for some of the severe weather parameters that may take away from the holiday joy. If you have decorations outside your home, you might want check how secure they are or take them down.

The Wind Advisory has been expanded west to include Baltimore and all counties in central Maryland touching the west side of the Bay. This is for winds gusts over 50 mph, and on top of the Flash Flood Watch. So soggy ground plus the high winds and even severe thunderstorms risk will last until just after midnight. Then, it gets colder and we watch for Christmas Day snow showers.

This report will first address the elements of Warnings and Alerts. Then a look at this morning weather, rain and temperatures timeline.

Christmas Day Storm Warnings And Alerts

 

 

Quick Central Maryland Forecast Snapshot

This is a sample for central Maryland in Carroll County.  Please click the image for the full Maryland Weather page and see what our app shows for your location.

 

 

Wind Forecast

Forecast wind gusts over 50 mph possible for all areas just east of the front range/Catoctin Ridge to the coast.

Over 60 mph along the immediate Atlantic coastline.

 

 

Rain/Flooding Forecast

Large area over 1 and 2 inches of rain. However, there will be a ‘hole’ or lull zone even in areas that get strong winds.

Snow Pack And Melt: Even if you do not have snow, there are many inland locations that do. This includes blocking storm drains, and ground coverage that will be melting. This will add additional water that needs to drain out to the Bay and Atlantic.  That will increase the high water on water ways.

 

Severe Storm Risk

We may have several rounds of potential storms that could prompt warnings during the afternoon and evening.  These may include damaging winds on top of the widespread gusts and isolated tornadoes.

 

Snow Expectations

This NOAA Forecast now supports what I have been showing over the past few days: At least a little snow across Maryland west of the Bay.

 

Snow Forecast GFS Model: 

This is for potential with snow showers and squalls.  There has been a pronounced push for snow across southern Maryland on Friday that may coat the ground there.

• Heavy snow may reach up to 8 inches in Garrett County MD and this high mountains of West Virginia.
• Additional snowfall shows up across the map into Baltimore suburbs and even Southern Maryland.

This is the ‘hint’ that supports the Max I have been showing the past few nights.

 

 

Storm Set Up

The arctic front has been forecast for a week, but the timing and impact has changed a little.

Why? Because of that area of Low Pressure riding along the front. This is the main reason for delaying the arrival time, and where to focus the rwin vs. snow.

 

Evening Forecast Map

That Low Pressure formed sooner and farther north. That allows it reach western Maryland this evening. That timing keeps most of us on the warmer side, then bringing in the cold air after it passes.  Western Maryland will get in on the heavy snow tonight. We will get snow showers and squalls in the cold core air Christmas Day.

 

 

Temperatures: This Morning

 

Temperature Timeline
The sharp contrast of air masses is the reason for this severe weather.

• Christmas Eve Night: 60s in central Maryland and Delmarva.
• Christmas Morning: Freezing Line crosses metro Baltimore before sunrise.
  (Possible Flash Freeze)
• Christmas Afternoon: Most of the state will be below freezing! 20s and Teens inland.

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Radar Simulation —> slider

Heaviest Rain: 5 PM Thursday to 2 AM Friday

Watch the heavier bands of rain (yellow/orange) slowly move east.  Then the transition to icy mix (pink) and snow (blue) arriving in the mountains by midnight.

 

Live Radar Widget