December 23 Weather: Flash Flood Watch Christmas Eve Then Quick Freeze

Wednesday December 23 2020

A package of weather advisories has been issued across the region. Most prolific is the Flash Flood Watch for heavy rain.  A Winter Storm Watch includes Garrett County MD and into the high mountains for heavy snow.  A High Wind Watch along the coast, and Small Craft Advisory for the Chesapeake Bay.

This does not change anything.  We are still expecting a mix to snow overnight, and very cold air Christmas Day with afternoon flurries and snow showers.  The timing of the arrival will be within a few hours of midnight.

Christmas Eve Weather Alerts

It’s important to note that there is still snowpack and snow piles for most areas west and north of I-95. That will add to flooding potential, and blocked storm drains.

 

 

How Much Rain?

The two main computer models have diverged on the timing of the front, but they agree (more or less) on the amount of rainfall.

 

GFS Model

 

ECMWF Model

 

Let’s Back Up To The Set Up This Morning

WE have chilly air in place this morning, but a warm up is on the way ahead of the Arctic Front.  That front can be seen on the map this morning.

 

 

Temperatures

 

Closer View

 

Central Maryland Forecast Snapshot

 

Storm Animation

 

Timeline

• Thursday: Rain develops during the morning. Heavy rain by mid afternoon and evening.
• The models are pushing the front through central Maryland (metro Baltimore) between 2 AM and 6 AM Christmas Morning.
• Rain will mix and briefly change to snow.
• You might see snow at daybreak in some areas…
• Flash Freeze inland but not in cities.
• Friday Afternoon: Flurries and Snow Showers. *This may be the best chance for widespread viewing of falling snowflakes.

 

Snapshot: 4 AM Christmas Morning

 

Explore More: Click here for The Case For Christmas Day Snow Showers

 

Temperatures 

Early Morning

Will there be a Flash Freeze?  I will focus more on this in the next full report. Temperatures will be dropping with the end of precipitation, and early enough in the day. It will be more likely for the same inland locations that still have snow on the ground this morning, not in the cities or by the Bay.

 

Afternoon

 

 

Temperature Outlook 

 

 

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