December 15 2020

There has been an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for many areas. This is academic as this is a normal transition as we have more confidence of the high snow regions in a time frame less than 6 hours away.  Some areas still under a Winter Storm Watch need a little more scrutiny to determine what level advisory is justified. That update will come today.

As we address the storm here, I will show you some wind maps. On Wednesday night there is a forecast for gusts over 40 mph in the snow zone.  These would be blizzard conditions. More on that below.

You may have noticed some change in snow totals from your other sources.  I am still confident with most of my original call, which I will show again below.

Winter Storm Warning

These are issued by The National Weather Service

December 15 winter storm warning Wednesday



Morning Weather Set Up

The developing storm is in the central plains states. This will drive east and redevelop to our coastal storm from the Southeast US tonight and Wednesday.

You will notice the colder air in place today, but we should have mostly sunny skies.  The high clouds may blur out sunset.

December 15 weather Tuesday morning storm



A lot of areas down into the 20s, where there was snow and rain. If it was wet last night, there might be some ice this morning.  This might mainly apply to sidewalks and driveways.

December 15 weather temperature Tuesday morning



Afternoon Forecast

December 15 weather temperatures Tuesday afternoon


Central Maryland Forecast Snapshot

December 15 Maryland weather winter storm forecast

Click here to see your local weather forecast page



Looking At The Storm

I stand by two things: RESPECT THE WARM AIR and The European Model has done the best job handling this.

Here is a look at the Euro ECMWF Model timeline. Below is that wind snapshot I mentioned above, and a look at the GFS Model animation for comparison.


  • Baltimore City to metro Washington may start and end as snow. In between will be the mix and some rain.
  • The snow, mix, rain line may be separated by less than 30 miles at times.

Storm Simulation —> slider

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Blizzard Conditions? Wind Snapshot

A true blizzard is defined as a storm with heavy snow falling at the rate of 1″/hour with 35 mph winds and under 1 mile visibility for 3 consecutive hours.

The forecast wind GUSTS will qualify for inland areas that remain snow in the evening.


Wind Speed/Direction

December 15 storm wind speed Wednesday 7 PM


Wind Gusts


December 15 storm wind gusts Wednesday 7 PM



Temperature Timeline –> slider

I zoomed in a little closer to hopefully make the numbers easier to read.

Some inland areas will remain below freezing, but the clouds will warm. That will be the period of sleet and freezing rain mixing in.

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GFS Model Animation
This has brought in some warmer air, but still has a colder solution than the Euro. That would reflect in higher snow totals in this product and many of your aps.  But there is less snow for places south of Baltimore to Washington and Annapolis.
December 15 winter storm GFS


My Original Call For Snowfall
I still feel confident in ‘most’ of this.  The one region I may have to adjust down will be Annapolis and southern Maryland to south of Washington. I will have that update this afternoon.
If you missed it, see my post last night: What Are THEY Calling For?
December 14 My First Call Snowfall



Temperature Outlook


December 15 temperature outlook




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14 Local Maryland Pages (and York PA)

We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations.

Local Hourly Forecasts and Local Radar
Central Maryland
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National Weather Service Adds Maryland Cecil And Garrett Counties



Maryland Weather Page

Maryland Weather 

I wanted to keep it simple. Just the basics for a quick view at any time.

Maryland Weather Just In Weather




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