December 15 2020

There has been an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for many areas. This is academic as this is a normal transition as we have more confidence of the high snow regions in a time frame less than 6 hours away.  Some areas still under a Winter Storm Watch need a little more scrutiny to determine what level advisory is justified. That update will come today.

As we address the storm here, I will show you some wind maps. On Wednesday night there is a forecast for gusts over 40 mph in the snow zone.  These would be blizzard conditions. More on that below.

You may have noticed some change in snow totals from your other sources.  I am still confident with most of my original call, which I will show again below.

Winter Storm Warning

These are issued by The National Weather Service

December 15 winter storm warning Wednesday

 

 

Morning Weather Set Up

The developing storm is in the central plains states. This will drive east and redevelop to our coastal storm from the Southeast US tonight and Wednesday.

You will notice the colder air in place today, but we should have mostly sunny skies.  The high clouds may blur out sunset.

December 15 weather Tuesday morning storm

 

Temperatures 

A lot of areas down into the 20s, where there was snow and rain. If it was wet last night, there might be some ice this morning.  This might mainly apply to sidewalks and driveways.

December 15 weather temperature Tuesday morning

 

 

Afternoon Forecast

December 15 weather temperatures Tuesday afternoon

 

Central Maryland Forecast Snapshot

December 15 Maryland weather winter storm forecast

Click here to see your local weather forecast page

 

 

Looking At The Storm

I stand by two things: RESPECT THE WARM AIR and The European Model has done the best job handling this.

Here is a look at the Euro ECMWF Model timeline. Below is that wind snapshot I mentioned above, and a look at the GFS Model animation for comparison.

Note:

  • Baltimore City to metro Washington may start and end as snow. In between will be the mix and some rain.
  • The snow, mix, rain line may be separated by less than 30 miles at times.

Storm Simulation —> slider

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Blizzard Conditions? Wind Snapshot

A true blizzard is defined as a storm with heavy snow falling at the rate of 1″/hour with 35 mph winds and under 1 mile visibility for 3 consecutive hours.

The forecast wind GUSTS will qualify for inland areas that remain snow in the evening.

 

Wind Speed/Direction

December 15 storm wind speed Wednesday 7 PM

 

Wind Gusts

 

December 15 storm wind gusts Wednesday 7 PM

 

 

Temperature Timeline –> slider

I zoomed in a little closer to hopefully make the numbers easier to read.

Some inland areas will remain below freezing, but the clouds will warm. That will be the period of sleet and freezing rain mixing in.

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GFS Model Animation
This has brought in some warmer air, but still has a colder solution than the Euro. That would reflect in higher snow totals in this product and many of your aps.  But there is less snow for places south of Baltimore to Washington and Annapolis.
December 15 winter storm GFS

 

My Original Call For Snowfall
I still feel confident in ‘most’ of this.  The one region I may have to adjust down will be Annapolis and southern Maryland to south of Washington. I will have that update this afternoon.
If you missed it, see my post last night: What Are THEY Calling For?
December 14 My First Call Snowfall

 

 

Temperature Outlook

 

December 15 temperature outlook

 

 

 

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December 5 Snowfall History Start Of Faith in the Flakes

 

 

Winter Outlook Series

Winter Outlook 2021 Tropical Hints

Winter Outlook Polar Vortex Arctic Oscillation

Winter Outlook Solar Minimum

Early Winter October

Winter Outlook Series Weather Folklore

 

Winter Outlook 2021 La Nina Advisory

Winter Outlooks Farmers Almanacs

 

YOUR INTERACTIVE WEATHER PAGES

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We have made a page for Maryland Weather which gives you the current conditions for 14 present area locations.

Local Hourly Forecasts and Local Radar
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Delmarva
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National Weather Service Adds Maryland Cecil And Garrett Counties

 

 

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Maryland Weather 

I wanted to keep it simple. Just the basics for a quick view at any time.

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