December 15 Weather Winter Storm Warning And Blizzard Conditions

December 15 2020

There has been an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for many areas. This is academic as this is a normal transition as we have more confidence of the high snow regions in a time frame less than 6 hours away.  Some areas still under a Winter Storm Watch need a little more scrutiny to determine what level advisory is justified. That update will come today.

As we address the storm here, I will show you some wind maps. On Wednesday night there is a forecast for gusts over 40 mph in the snow zone.  These would be blizzard conditions. More on that below.

You may have noticed some change in snow totals from your other sources.  I am still confident with most of my original call, which I will show again below.

Winter Storm Warning

These are issued by The National Weather Service

Morning Weather Set Up

The developing storm is in the central plains states. This will drive east and redevelop to our coastal storm from the Southeast US tonight and Wednesday.

You will notice the colder air in place today, but we should have mostly sunny skies.  The high clouds may blur out sunset.

Temperatures 

A lot of areas down into the 20s, where there was snow and rain. If it was wet last night, there might be some ice this morning.  This might mainly apply to sidewalks and driveways.

Afternoon Forecast

Central Maryland Forecast Snapshot

Click here to see your local weather forecast page

Looking At The Storm

I stand by two things: RESPECT THE WARM AIR and The European Model has done the best job handling this.

Here is a look at the Euro ECMWF Model timeline. Below is that wind snapshot I mentioned above, and a look at the GFS Model animation for comparison.

Note:

• Baltimore City to metro Washington may start and end as snow. In between will be the mix and some rain.
• The snow, mix, rain line may be separated by less than 30 miles at times.

Storm Simulation —> slider

Blizzard Conditions? Wind Snapshot

A true blizzard is defined as a storm with heavy snow falling at the rate of 1″/hour with 35 mph winds and under 1 mile visibility for 3 consecutive hours.

The forecast wind GUSTS will qualify for inland areas that remain snow in the evening.

Wind Speed/Direction

Wind Gusts

Temperature Timeline –> slider

I zoomed in a little closer to hopefully make the numbers easier to read.

Some inland areas will remain below freezing, but the clouds will warm. That will be the period of sleet and freezing rain mixing in.

Temperature Outlook

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