Monday December 14 Chilly Rain And Wet Snow Today Winter Storm Watch Wednesday

Monday December 14 2020

The first of two storms this week is with us this morning. A chilly rain for most of the region. Snow will mix in where there is a Winter Weather Advisory, but as we have explained for a few days it will be a wet snow. Temperatures will not drop below freezing locally until after dark. So any snow will likely melt on the roads or stick mainly on the grass.

Colder air will follow, and some icing in those northern zones tonight.  Then as the cold air settles in, we have the bigger storm moving in Wednesday afternoon.  A Winter Storm Watch is already up for the colder zones.  More advisories will be expanded as we get closer.

Winter Storm Watch Wednesday Through Thursday Morning

The brighter blue colors represent today’s Winter Weather Advisory in addition to the ‘Watch’.

 

 

Morning Surface Weather

 

Morning Temperatures 

 

 

Radar Simulation Snapshots Today

Colder air will gradually mix in snow, but surface temperatures will remain above freezing locally. If you encounter an issue it would be in the higher mountains in western Maryland and central PA.

 

 

 

Temperature Forecasts Today

Notice the chill, but not below freezing until after dark.  Some northern zones that are still wet, could have ice develop in the evening.

 

 

 

 

 

The Big Storm: Wednesday Afternoon to Thursday Morning

Here is a look at the ECMWF Model. This is the best solution I see as it is accounting for warmer air mixing in for central Maryland.

A few people have asked about the bias or SouthEast shift I often discuss. Should that happen, we still have to consider the wind direction bringing in warmer air from the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean.

 

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My First Call For Snowfall

This will be a big event for the region. Metro areas are more likely to get their burst of snow over Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

This is my low end conservative number. I will fine tune with another update after this first event passes.

 

How Long Since The Last Snow at BWI

• 342 Days Ago: January 7, 2020 = 1.5 inches
• 654 Days Ago/ 1 year, 9 months, 13 days: March 1, 2019 = 2.3 inches
• 663 Days Ago/1 year, 9 months, 24 days: February 20, 2019 = 4.5 inches

Only 1.8″ of snow fell all of last winter ( December 2019 to March 2020)

 

 

Temperature Outlook 

 

 

 

 

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