Friday December 11 2020

With all of this talk of the building chances for a coastal storm next week,  now the number 2 storm might pass closer.  One prominent model is producing snow nearby on Monday, which we will look at here. But the number 3 storm off the coast on Wednesday is our main event.

In anticipation, I had to look at the stats. It seems like it has been a while, because of our anemic winter last year.  So, when was the last decent measurable snow (in Baltimore)?

How Long Since The Last Snow at BWI

  • 339 Days Ago: January 7, 2020 = 1.5 inches
  • 651 Days Ago/ 1 year, 9 months, 10 days: March 1, 2019 = 2.3 inches
  • 660 Days Ago/1 year, 9 months, 21 days: February 20, 2019 = 4.5 inches

Only 1.8″ of snow fell all of last winter ( December 2019 to March 2020)


Are you ready to measure some snow? My partners and I have a special on SnowStix below with the storm maps.


Before we get ahead of ourselves, I will NEVER give a snow amount more than 72 hours before an event.  The models show it and you can find that elsewhere. But I don’t believe in long range snow storm total maps given so many variables and a history of it not verifying.

However, I do think we have a good chance of a few inches of snow if the storm plays out as it looks now.


Monday Snow (Inland) As Well?

That said, we are within 72 hours of storm number 2, with a pleasant surprise from a few computer models.  But since this is an abrupt change, I would like to see on more run to know if it is legit or bit off some bad data. If this holds, I will post snow potential in my report tonight.


The European ECMWF Model has a long spread as precipitation shifting north from prior runs. The cold air may remain in the mountains. ALSO this will be after a weekend in the 50s and 60s.

December 11 weather snow rain Monday ECMWF



The GFS (American) Model is what I have been spending a lot of time on with the mid week coastal.  Here, the latest solution is less exciting for Monday. But there is a shift north with the precipitation, just not enough cold air.


December 11 weather rain snow Monday



Mid Week Coastal Storm: Winter Event

A deep tough of cold air and plenty of energy will be swinging towards the east coast. This is what will provide the enhancement for a coastal storm to develop.

December 11 jet stream storm Wednesday


Storm Animation

Watch the Low Pressure develop rapidly as that cold air aloft catches up during Wednesday.

See the slider below for a closer view.




GFS Model —> slider

This projection shows an all day Wednesday winter weather event.

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Other Models
European ECMWF Model:
This solution is slower with the storm.
  • Arrival is later, and it also keeps the Surface Low closer to the coast.
  • Wednesday Afternoon: Later snow and mixing in metro areas.
  • Overnight/Thursday morning:  Heavy snow pulls across metro areas and Chesapeake Bay.

Wednesday Afternoon

December 11 weather storm snow ice ECMWF Wednesday


Overnight/Thursday Morning

December 11 weather storm snow ECMWF Thursday

The Canadian Model has come on board fully after being absent last night.
December 11 weather storm snow Canadian Wednesday PM 4
How Much Snow?

These maps look impressive.  In addition to getting this to verify, we need to get a handle on timing and temperatures. Both which can play a role in what can stick and pile up.

I will begin to give my snow forecasts for this this event on Sunday (with 72 hours of the event).


SnowStix Special: 

SnowStix Sale25 Dec2020


Temperature Outlook
Winter storms are game changers. We see ‘cold enough’ air with the event, and even cold air to follow.  The outlook up to Christmas has been trending colder as well.
December 11 temperature ooutlook GFS Friday

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