Friday December 11 2020

A lot of buzz has been stirring over the potential winter storm on the coast next week. Since last night when I posted 2 of 3 models on board, now there is agreement from the third. I will show you the latest maps below. But that will the ‘3rd of 3 storms’ to track between now and Wednesday.

The first storm is on the map this morning. This will be responsible more for giving us warm air than rain.  We will have some morning fog, and a few scattered shower, but the weekend may be remembered for being nice as we get near 60ºF.

Morning Surface Weather

December 11 weather Friday morning

 

 

Morning Temperatures 

December 11 weather temperatures Friday morning

 

Forecast Snapshot: Central Maryland

  • Storm 1: Saturday only scattered showers
  • Storm 2: Monday Rain may get farther north.
  • Storm 3: Wednesday coastal low Pressure brings snow and wintry mix. More on that below

 

Temperature Forecast —> slider

I mentioned the weekend may be best remembered for the mild air. Here’s a look at the highs and lows through Sunday.

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Three Storms Through Wednesday 
This map best shows what we will see passing across the map.
Note: Storm 2 now appears to be tracking a little north. This is now expected to bring rain into Maryland on Monday.
December 11 Three Storms Through Wednesday
Storm Animation: GFS Model
Here we can see the progression of these weather events.
Below is a brief snapshot from the GFS compared to the European and Canadian Models on Next Wednesday.
December 11 weather storms winter rain snow
Storm (3) Snapshot on Wednesday
We are now within 5 days of this event. With consensus among the three main models, there is higher confidence for this event.
Please note there there will be more fine tuning of where the snow, mix, and rain will set up.
Any snow potential is still too early to speculate. If this is still looking promising, I  will show my first call by Sunday. Then more specifics each day leading up.
GFS Model
The coldest solution with the heaviest snow in north central Maryland.
December 11 weather winter storm snow Wednesday GFS
European Model
Still the middle solution, with a wintry mix in metro areas (that will end with snow)
December 11 weather winter storm snow Wednesday ECMWF

 

Canadian Model
This was not showing the storm yesterday. Now it is showing a storm, but the farthest south. This brings snow into southern Maryland.
I can not agree with this solution at this time. But, it does at least develop the storm. That is progress in validating an event.
December 11 weather winter storm snow Wednesday Canadian
Temperature Outlook 
December 11 weather temperature outlook

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