Thursday December 10 2020

For the past couple of days I have included a small glimpse at a possible winter storm next week.  I did this to shed some light that the computer modeling in long range has an error, which would result in each new forecast (to a certain point) shifting the storm track farther south and east.

Should a storm initially have snow inland and track over our region, it may end up verifying east with the snow possibly affecting our region.  That is what we see now, with the potential for accumulating snow and ice impacting our region next Wednesday. Tonight we have a Hanukkah gift to make up for the diminished northern lights opportunity.

Below you can see how 2 out of 3 computer models agree. (Cue the old Trident commercial)

But this is 6 Days away, and there will be more adjustments.  In fact, this is the 3rd event in line over the next week, with each one playing a role in the one that follows.


Busy Week Ahead

  • Storm 1: Friday to Sunday this will track well north, and help to bring us temps in the 60s.
  • Storm 2: Sunday to Monday will track well south and miss us.
  • Storm 3 : Wednesday we ‘could’ see development off the coast after phasing with the northern Jet.

There are a lot of ‘IFs’ to get this to happen.

December 10 weather 3 winter storms



Storm Animation: GFS Model

Here is a look at the storms in motion. Note that this is just the GFS Model, and not all models have the same results.

Below we will take a closer look at the GFS timeframes, and compare to the European ECMWF and Canadian GEM Models.

Friday Evening To Wednesday Night

December 10 stormy week GFS rain snow


The Jet Stream Next Wednesday 

A vigorous and deep trough is what is expected to allow some ‘phasing’ for the 3rd storm as a strong coastal.

December 10 storm jet stream Wednesday


Closer Look at the GFS Model —> slider

  • This is the most aggressive solution for this storm.
  • See the development of steady, and even heavy snow (dark blue) that includes Baltimore, Washington, eventually Annapolis and northern Delmarva.

Compare this to the two other models below.


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European ECMWF Model
In a perfect world, this is a more likely result of a coastal storm in this environment and this time of year.
One thing I will watch as we get closer, besides if this track holds… will be the temperatures on the Chesapeake Bay. Most of the early winter events it can play a big role in warming nearby area away from snow.
ECMWF Forecast for 7 PM Wed Dec 16
December 10 weather winter storm Wednesday ECMWF

Canadian GEM Model
Meanwhile, our winter friend The Canadian doesn’t show the storm at all. At least on this morning’s run.  It will likely catch up in come capacity over the next few days.
December 10 weather winter storm Wednesday Canadian
My Take
While this is under 6 days away, it is still a medium to ling range forecast.
Is it OK to get excited? Sort of!
I got excited with the agreement and trend.  However, I would NEVER promise anything at this juncture in time.
I will NEVER give suggestions of snow totals this far away.
I will not show snow total products from these models because I do not believe it is realistic at this time.
I will follow this for you with updates and comparative trends each day.
My winter protocol: Snow amounts (when justified) begin as a low end confidence number within 72 hours.  Then Snowfall Ranges within 48 hours of the event.
Faith in the Flakes! We are due this winter.

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