Friday December 11 2020

With all of this talk of the building chances for a coastal storm next week,  now the number 2 storm might pass closer.  One prominent model is producing snow nearby on Monday, which we will look at here. But the number 3 storm off the coast on Wednesday is our main event.

In anticipation, I had to look at the stats. It seems like it has been a while, because of our anemic winter last year.  So, when was the last decent measurable snow (in Baltimore)?

How Long Since The Last Snow at BWI

• 339 Days Ago: January 7, 2020 = 1.5 inches
• 651 Days Ago/ 1 year, 9 months, 10 days: March 1, 2019 = 2.3 inches
• 660 Days Ago/1 year, 9 months, 21 days: February 20, 2019 = 4.5 inches

Only 1.8″ of snow fell all of last winter ( December 2019 to March 2020)

Are you ready to measure some snow? My partners and I have a special on SnowStix below with the storm maps.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, I will NEVER give a snow amount more than 72 hours before an event.  The models show it and you can find that elsewhere. But I don’t believe in long range snow storm total maps given so many variables and a history of it not verifying.

However, I do think we have a good chance of a few inches of snow if the storm plays out as it looks now.

Monday Snow (Inland) As Well?

That said, we are within 72 hours of storm number 2, with a pleasant surprise from a few computer models.  But since this is an abrupt change, I would like to see on more run to know if it is legit or bit off some bad data. If this holds, I will post snow potential in my report tonight.

The European ECMWF Model has a long spread as precipitation shifting north from prior runs. The cold air may remain in the mountains. ALSO this will be after a weekend in the 50s and 60s.

The GFS (American) Model is what I have been spending a lot of time on with the mid week coastal.  Here, the latest solution is less exciting for Monday. But there is a shift north with the precipitation, just not enough cold air.

Mid Week Coastal Storm: Winter Event

A deep tough of cold air and plenty of energy will be swinging towards the east coast. This is what will provide the enhancement for a coastal storm to develop.

Storm Animation

Watch the Low Pressure develop rapidly as that cold air aloft catches up during Wednesday.

See the slider below for a closer view.

GFS Model —> slider

This projection shows an all day Wednesday winter weather event.

• Arrival is later, and it also keeps the Surface Low closer to the coast.
• Wednesday Afternoon: Later snow and mixing in metro areas.
• Overnight/Thursday morning:  Heavy snow pulls across metro areas and Chesapeake Bay.

Wednesday Afternoon

Overnight/Thursday Morning