November 30 2020

It’s time!  The severe weather that blew through today was a signal of two things: A lot of energy in the atmosphere and colder air on the move in.  This cold air will open up the Lake Effect Snow Machine.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Garrett County, but that is western Maryland with 3,000 Ft mountains. What about here?

December 1 is the start of Meteorological Winter, and it will feel like it. I see one a band of snow showers reaching central Maryland in the morning. There will be more energy that can send a few more showers or flurries into Wednesday.  Forecast maps below, and a glimpse into the COLDER that normal first half of the month.

Monday Evening Weather Map

Low Pressure is moving north. It should be noted that this tracked east of model forecasts. That may come in handy later.

The snow on the back side has pushed all the was south into Alabama. This will move east overnight, but the mountains will play a role in how far.

November 30 Monday evening weather snow

 

 

Midnight Snow Forecast

The steady and heavy snow should reach Garrett County Maryland.

December 1 snow Tuesday 12 AM

 

Winter Storm Warning

This snow zone will continue to get snow all day. That is where the bulk of the accumulation will pile up.

The Winter Storm Warning includes the highest mountains. The Winter Weather Advisory includes Frostburg for some minor accumulation.

December 1 Winter Storm Warning

 

Snow Timeline –> Slider

A morning band of showers should contain snow at daybreak. This will reach the western and north suburbs of Baltimore.

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Afternoon Temperatures 
December 1 cold temperatures Tuesday afternoon
More Snow Showers
December 1 snow Tuesday 4 PM
Snow Forecast Through Tuesday
December 1 snow forecast

 

Jet Stream Support Through Wednesday
I see multiple disturbances aloft that will help enhance snow showers and help lift them over the mountains. This is seen at the 500mb level (around 18,000Ft) with the Vorticity or spin. I’ve highlighted them with the X in the maps below.
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My Thoughts
Computer models are good guidance, but they often miss on snow showers and flurries in a pattern like this.
The first flakes of the season are a big deal to many, and since last winter was such a bust, I wanted to share in the excitement for possible flakes over the next two days.
Pattern Change
Faith in the Flakes
I’ve talked about the entire pattern shifting to be colder than average for the eastern US.  There is a good signal to support that with the Arctic Oscillation.
The Polar Vortex has been trending weaker and the Arctic Oscillation is trending towards neutral. This is forecast to go negative for the first two weeks (at least) of December.
November 30 Arctic Oscillation
This contradicts the NOAA Outlook for the month and perhaps this winter.  If this holds true, it means that La Nina will not be dominating our weather as I wrote in My Winter Outlook.  The Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation will help to supply us with colder air and even the energy in the jet stream to build storms in that cold pattern. Those are the ingredients we need for snow. This is the best it has looked for us in a few years.
FITF

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Explore the site for Hoodies, hats, pants, kids stuff, and Snow Day Kits. This Faith in the Flakes thing began in with my son back in 2009 and you help keep it going. Thank you for your support and the over 300 schools who have invited me in for winter weather education programs.

 

FITF Hoodies SALE Dec 2020

 

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Also See:

My Final Winter Outlook: Snow Forecast

My Winter 2021 Outlook

 

 

FAITH IN THE FLAKES STORE OPEN

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FITF MD Hoodie Jaiden

 

 

 

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Winter Outlook Series

Winter Outlook 2021 Tropical Hints

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Winter Outlook Solar Minimum

Early Winter October

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Winter Outlook 2021 La Nina Advisory

Winter Outlooks Farmers Almanacs

 

 

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