November 8 Weather Still Warm And Growing Tropical Storm Eta

Sunday November 8 2020

Enjoy this warm weather, but the same pattern will bring us heavy rain in a few days. I strongly encourage you to take advantage and catch up on yard work. Hint, hint…

Record high temperatures were reached yesterday. Baltimore hit 77ºF at BWI, which tied the mark set in 1938 and 1975. We could get that warm again today, but the record today was 80ºF set in 1975.  That will be harder to reach.

On the weather map, High Pressure remains in control, but will help to bring in some heavy rain.  That will be from Tropical Storm Eta. After crossing Cuba this morning, that storm is expected to curl past south Florida and get stuck in the Gulf of Mexico all week.  The rain it sends us will arrive well ahead of it by Wednesday.

Morning Surface Weather

 

 

Tropical Storm Eta

I am spending time on this storm for two reasons:

1. This is a rare event for November, which will last for a while.
2. This will indirectly send us heavy rain mid week, and possibly again next weekend.

 

National Hurricane Center Update: 7 AM EST

• Winds: 60 mph
• Moving: NNE at 12 mph
• Tropical Storm Warnings for all of South Florida and The Bahamas.

 

Getting Stronger

The latest spread of computer model forecasts does show the potential for reaching hurricane intensity. Some of this will depend on the path over land or just south of South Florida.

 

Eta Forecast Track/Cone

This new map from the National Hurricane Center shows the S-turn again around Florida and then getting nearly stalled in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

This does NOT show a track to our region. That is NOT the forecast for us. But watch the forecast maps below to see how this will play a role.

 

 

Eta Forecast Animation

Here is the GFS Model showing the core of Eta at the bottom of the view. This will stay near Florida.

But watch the moisture from it shoot north ahead of a cold front that will reach us on Wednesday!  Keep watching and it appears to do it again next weekend.  The storm will remain in the Gulf and still be an influence on our weather Wednesday through Sunday.

 

Wednesday Snapshot

That tropical  moisture will meet up with a cold front and result in heavy rain Wednesday. This may also bring some strong thunderstorms. A rarity for November.

 

 

How Much Rain?

 

Temperature Forecast

Today

 

Monday Morning

 

 

 

Looking Ahead