Tropical Storm Arthur: First Of The Season Expected Landfall Monday

Sunday May 17 2020

Tropical Storm Arthur was named last night just east of the Florida coast. The winds are 40 mph, making this a minimum storm, but it is expected to intensity today before hitting North Carolina Monday morning. Here is a look at the tropical conditions, plus our local weather below.

Tropical Storm Arthur

Satellite Loop (close)

Stats From NHC

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 77.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

 

Tropical Storm Warning

• Surf City to Duck NC
• Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

 

Satellite Loop (wide)

 

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Maps

The European Model shows a 90% chance this crossed the tip of North Carolina. It also has a 50% chance this passes just off the coast of Ocean City, Maryland.

 

Global Models

There are still some models that show Arthur curving east, then retrograded back west on to the Mid Atlantic coast.  Regardless of the core Low doing that, I see the moisture feeding into rain for us.

The GEFS Model shows a move out to the Atlantic and a wider curve.

GFS Forecast Animation

Sunday through Wednesday morning. 

 

Tropical Storm Arthur Intensity

The winds are expected top top out between 50 knots and 60 knots. That translates to over 55 mph.

Closest Pass: Monday Evening

 

Ocean Wind Forecast

The Maryland Weather impact here will be most directly felt on the coast. Here is the close passage of the Low and wind expectations. A Northeast wind Monday evening will be 30 mph with Tropical Storm force gusts over 40 mph.

Tuesday Evening

The core Low should move off of the coast, but the wind field will be expanding and keep the 25 to 35 mph winds on the coast. This may not sound like much, but it will stir up rip currents, beach erosion, and enhance the rain for the inland weather system coming from the west.

 

Sunday Morning: Maryland Weather Map

This is not a large storm, but it will remain a force with high waves and strong winds affecting the Maryland weather and Delmarva coast much of the week.

• East winds will keep temps cooler in the 60s for the next few days.
• Slow moving storm in the MidWest today will reach us and stall mid week.
• TS Arthur should cross North Carolina, then head out to sea. But it will linger with moisture fed back into that storm for us.

 

Maryland Weather Sunday Morning

Morning Doppler Radar

The old front is making a return from the south. This has developed light rain showers across central Maryland. Moderate rain bands in the mountains west of Frederick will pass northeast into southern PA.

 

Sunday Afternoon

 

GFS Forecast: TS Arthur and MidWest Storm

Monday through Friday

A close look at the core Low for TS Arthur shows it turning out to the ocean, but pulling back and enhancing the inland storm affecting the Mid Atlantic.

 

Temperature Outlook 

The risk of ray almost each day, along with easterly winds should keep our temps in the lower 60s in the middle of next week.

 

 

 

Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

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Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland