Saturday May 16 2020

The National Hurricane Center has officially designated that Low Pressure off of the Florida coast as Tropical Depression One. Winds are 35 mph and it is moving to the North-Northeast at 13 mph.  This is the last step before being officially named a Tropical Storm, which seems inevitable this weekend.

Tropical Storm Watch:

It is likely that that the storm will be upgraded and named Tropical Storm Arthur as it moves up the east coast. A Watch has been issued up to Duck, NC as this could clip North Carolina. What is in question is the track after either out to sea or up the coast. Either way this will impact Maryland and the Mid Atlantic.

Evening Visible Satellite: Tropical Depression One

Tropical Depression One Arthur Visible Satellite May 16


Visible Satellite Loop

The circulation is broad, which means this will be developing slowly. But it is over warm water and will be intensifying.


T.D. One Stats

LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W


Forecast Model Tracks

The GEFS Model  Ensemble

If this impacts the Mid Atlantic, it will be Monday evening to Wednesday.

This product shows a variety of solutions, with the two main thoughts having this loop back toward the New Jersey or Mid Atlantic coasts by Tuesday or Wednesday.

I will show more solutions below, but it is possible that the core Low does not retrograde but get moisture absorbed by the upper Low we have been expecting to stall over the Mid Atlantic next week.

Tropical Depression One Arthur Forecast Models Tracks May 16


GFS Forecast Animation: Tropical Depression One

This model tracks the Low far west, over eastern North Carolina late Monday.  While the Low here is not shown to double back on to the coast, the moisture does get pulled west into the system heading for the Mid Atlantic.



How Close to Ocean City, Maryland?

The GFS Model brings the storm center within 100 miles of the Maryland/Delmarva coast.

Tropical Depression One Arthur Forecast GFS Model


The European ECMWF Model takes the storm center on a curve to farther east out to sea.

Tropical Depression One Arthur Forecast ECWMF Model


HWRF Model

This is the most interesting as it brings the Low the closest to Ocean City. This is one of the solutions that loops off of the coast and retrogrades west onshore late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical Depression One Arthur Forecast HWRF Model



Ocean Waves Forecast

High Waves and Rip Currents

Now that beaches are open and schools along with many businesses are not, there may be more people wanted to head to the shore.  Regardless of how close or far (future Arthur) tracks, the wave impact will be far reaching. Rip currents are a sure thing.  The strong winds from this east will last a few days and feed into the other storm system we expect to bring us rain most of next week.



National Hurricane Center Forecast

The official forecast cone brings the storm past OBX, then curving out to sea. The closest approach to Maryland would be Monday afternoon/evening. The ‘cone of uncertainty’ leaves a wider margin.

I’ve seen the models trend west in the last two days, so the closer approach to the coast needs to be considered.

Tropical Depression One Arthur Forecast Track May 16


Tropical Storm Force Winds

The strongest winds should be Monday evening and at night.  As of the first forecast, the chance for TS winds on Delmarva are under 20%.

Tropical Depression One Arthur Winds May 16


How Much Rain?

It is too early to call that since the forecast tracks are so widespread and we have another storm system to dominate inland areas next week.

It is likely we get into flood mode with excessive rainfall on soggy soil.


Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

Tropical Storm Hurricane History


Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

13_Tropical Storm Formation Sep11_20


Email Updates

Please make sure you sign up (above or  click here to sign up for email alerts…. ) for my newsletter. This way you will get an email to make sure you are notified of each post.


Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media


Maryland Trek 7 

This will go on this August! Let’s hope social distancing will be a memory then. One way to celebrate would be to become part of my team:

  • Consider joining our team for the week, a single day, or even as a sponsor.

Maryland Trek 7


Other Posts You Might Be Interested In




Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland

Other  Links:

When is the typical last freeze or frost?

See more here


Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.



Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones


Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer

All proceeds will go to the Maryland Trek 6 total and Just In Power Kids programs

Thank you to our Title Sponsor for Maryland Trek 6

Shining on with Smyth and their contribution, our team has raised over $95,000 for Just In Power Kids to provide free programs for kids in and post cancer treatment.

Just In Power Kids:

Proceeds go to our programs Providing FREE holistic care for kids in cancer treatment and up to 5 years post treatment and caregivers.


Shine On

Proceeds from all sales go to Just In Power Kids. Click the image to shop and show your support.