Sunday May 17 2020

Tropical Storm Arthur has strengthened a little today and is now sending rain bands to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The storm continues to be expected to track off the coast from OBX, but the waves will be impacting the coast most of this week.

This report shows the ocean wave model with impact on the Maryland and Delaware beaches. Monday night. In addition the the updated stats and satellite, a look at the latest computer model guidance.

May 17 weather tropical storm arthur Sunday evening satellite


Satellite Loop (3 hours)



LOCATION...31.8N 77.0W

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds


Forecast Models

The main agreement is that Arthur will take the classic curve our to sea from North Carolina. But bu Wednesday the future remains sketchy.

May 17 weather tropical storm arthur global models


The GEFS Model is one of a few that show a distinct curve and attempt to maybe try to loop back closer to the coast.

May 17 weather tropical storm arthur GEFS models


Ocean Wave Model Timeline

The loop also appears here on the GFS model, but the organization breaks down.

Closest approach to Ocean City, MD: 8 PM Monday about 150 to 200 miles off of OCMD. A Northeast wind will be 30 mph with Tropical Storm force gusts over 40 mph. Then a persistent easterly flow in the 20 to 25 knot range should last much of the week.

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Wave Model Legend

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Forecast Intensity

The good news is that Arthur should peak Monday, so whatever happens to it with cool water and wind shear will help it weaken.

May 17 weather tropical storm arthur intensity

National Hurricane Forecast

That cruise and possible loop later this week still needs to be considered for extended high waves on the beaches and impact with the inland storm system.

May 17 weather tropical storm National Hurricane Center Cone


Impact On Inland Weather?

The slow moving Low over the upper Midwest is expected to move east. The daytime computer models stalled it west of us instead of overhead. This would mean an abrupt change for rain expectations this week.

I do not like to make abrupt changes to a forecast based on one model flip.

I will have a full forecast update in the morning to include if central sections get hit or missed by that inland storm.

May 17 maryland weather tropical storm arthur Sunday evening


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