Tropical Storm Arthur Ocean Wave Forecast And Sunday Evening Update

Sunday May 17 2020

Tropical Storm Arthur has strengthened a little today and is now sending rain bands to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The storm continues to be expected to track off the coast from OBX, but the waves will be impacting the coast most of this week.

This report shows the ocean wave model with impact on the Maryland and Delaware beaches. Monday night. In addition the the updated stats and satellite, a look at the latest computer model guidance.

 

Satellite Loop (3 hours)

 

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 77.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

 

Forecast Models

The main agreement is that Arthur will take the classic curve our to sea from North Carolina. But bu Wednesday the future remains sketchy.

 

The GEFS Model is one of a few that show a distinct curve and attempt to maybe try to loop back closer to the coast.

 

Ocean Wave Model Timeline

The loop also appears here on the GFS model, but the organization breaks down.

Closest approach to Ocean City, MD: 8 PM Monday about 150 to 200 miles off of OCMD. A Northeast wind will be 30 mph with Tropical Storm force gusts over 40 mph. Then a persistent easterly flow in the 20 to 25 knot range should last much of the week.

—> slider

 

Forecast Intensity

The good news is that Arthur should peak Monday, so whatever happens to it with cool water and wind shear will help it weaken.

National Hurricane Forecast

That cruise and possible loop later this week still needs to be considered for extended high waves on the beaches and impact with the inland storm system.

 

Impact On Inland Weather?

The slow moving Low over the upper Midwest is expected to move east. The daytime computer models stalled it west of us instead of overhead. This would mean an abrupt change for rain expectations this week.

I do not like to make abrupt changes to a forecast based on one model flip.

I will have a full forecast update in the morning to include if central sections get hit or missed by that inland storm.

 

Related Posts

2020 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Names and Naming History

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

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Water Spout OR Scud Cloud on videos and photos near Middle River Maryland