Wednesday November 6 2019

This morning is mild and we should remain seasonal through tomorrow when rain will arrive. Then the pattern turns sharply colder and many computer models are throwing snowflakes around nearby. As much as I love snow, I want to caution you about headlines you might read and maps you might see. Computer models are guidance and not gospel. Twice already the long range forecast showed snow in metro Baltimore (the week before Halloween and a week before this Friday). I have highlighted the bias for storms to verify earlier and north, so I did not push the early calls.

But as we get deeper into the season, the first flakes become more likely. So it’s time to address two chance for at least some flakes mixing in over the next week. This morning, we are on the mild side, but the map does show the cold on the way. It’s important to also consider the ground is warm and needs a lot of cooling down before it can support stickage.

Headlines

Mild today and Thursday
Thursday rain in western/northern hills after noon. Reaches metro areas at night.
Snow in Western Maryland Thursday Night, Flurries may mix in York Co PA and northern Maryland.
Weekend: Dry
Monday Evening: Possible Rain/Snow Mix into central Maryland.

Local Weather Stats:

Wednesday November 6, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 60ºF

Record High: 80ºF in 2015

Average Low: 39ºF

Record Low: 22ºF in 1991

Sunrise: 6:39 AM

Sunset 5:00 PM

*Daylight = 2:10 shorter than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 58ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

NEW FITF GEAR THIS YEAR

Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) who wanted to bring these hats to life. *Mustard is her favorite color
The Maryland Hoodie is high quality and a new way to show off our love of Snow and State.
The T-shirt… Something you may find familiar. Why just a T? Because many schools I visit have the heat on high for faculty and staff. But you can put a long sleeve underneath for cool look. I will have wifey model these soon 🙂

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Wednesday Afternoon

Thursday Morning

Thursday Afternoon

Radar Simulation —> slider

TURNING COLDER Friday

Flurries might fall at night to the north, and could reach central Maryland Friday morning with the colder winds

Skipping Past The (Dry) Weekend

Monday Evening

The European Model is showing a strong cold front with rain mixing to snow showers into central Maryland. This is NOT the type of set up to cause a problem on roads, but could lay a coating on the grass.

The GFS Model (less likely) is showing a storm developing on the coast. The timing shows Monday night and mainly Tuesday. This would try to bring some more stickage, but would need to chill the ground a lot first. Also, this model has been less reliable beyond 4 days. I do not believe this will play out, but I am showing it just in case I am wrong and we can reference back with model comparisons.

Temperature Outlook

It will feel like winter next week