Thursday October 31 2019

A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of the region until midnight. The squall line that may produce the worst weather is likely to arrive after trick or treating. See the timelines below.  But as a parent who has been planning to join my son out tonight, I question if it is a good idea. I am not sure if my neighborhood will stay on schedule. Why? Winds are already 15 to 30 mph this afternoon. They will be gusting over 40 mph this evening. Even before the worst rain or any other severe storm… That wind can force decorations to take flight, or branches to break.

I am far from a weather wimp, but kids will be out in the dark in costumes that might obstruct visibility. I had wanted to post a map when it was safe to be out, but now I must suggest caution and at your own risk.   Between model guidance and the fast bias I have identified with prior events, we can expect the worst between 7 PM and 10 PM.

Maybe it’s time to consider postponing until tomorrow.

 

Tornado Watch

 

As mentioned this morning, we have an enhanced risk for storms to turn severe.

 

Gusty Winds

Please consider the WIND will be an issue for the evening hours BEFORE the Squall Line. See that timeline and Windy Widget below the simulations

 

Rain Timelines

Here is a comparison of the NAM  3 Km and HRRR Models. The timing is similar. Still worth allowing an extra 1 hour buffer for the real event to possibly move faster.

NAM 3 Km Simulation —> slider

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HRRR Model Simulation —> slider

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Wind Timeline

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Windy Widget

 

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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

 

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it.

See the maps for when we normally expect the f