October 31 2019

Happy Halloween! Pardon the cliche, but the weather will be tricking us today. Temperatures will be warming into the 70s through this evening, then crash to wind chills in the 20s tomorrow morning. In between, winds will be increasing! If you have decorations or kids heading out this evening, it is important to note that winds will be 25 to 40+ mph from the south even a few hours before the storm line arrives. I am the farthest thing from a weather wimp and will be out with my son this evening, but there will be a chance for branches breaking and decorations flying around. Use your judgement. If I sense it’s getting bad, we will come in quickly.

Severe Storm Risk

An Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms for our region today, but most likely after 6 PM.

Headlines

Today: Rain Will Be Spotty At Times, Many Dry Hours
Evening Wind: Gusts Increase 20 to 40+ mph Hours BEFORE The Intense Rain. Branches can break and decorations can fly around.
Temperatures Warm To The Lower 70s
Squall Line: Intense Storm Line Tracks Across Maryland AFTER 6 PM, /In Metro Areas Between 8 PM and 10 PM
Storm Threat: Lightning, Top Wind Gusts Over 50 mph, Isolated Tornadoes

I am posting the evening conditions first for your interest. The daily weather is below.

Evening Snapshot

As of now, it looks like we will get a few hours of a ‘lull’. Computer Models suggest between 9 PM and 10 PM will be the worst conditions in metro areas (later in So. MD and Eastern Shore). My concern has been verifying a little sooner like our last few systems. So this will be close.

This could arrive 1 to 2 hours earlier, so please check back for another update this afternoon

Radar Simulation

Comparing the NAM 3 Km to HRRR, and we can see the HRRR is faster passing Fredrick and hitting Westminster to York at 9 PM. But a few dry hours before this line arrives.

Winds

Notice the strong wind field well ahead of the storm line. Winds will be an issue long before the risk for the squall/ severe storm line/

Peak Wind gusts over 50 mph with the squall line

Temperatures

Local Weather Stats:

Thursday October 31, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 62ºF

Record High: 85ºF in 1946

Average Low: 41ºF

Record Low: 25ºF in 1966

Sunrise: 7:32 AM

Sunset 6:06 PM

*Daylight = 2:17 shorter than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 63ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Morning Weather

Radar Loop

The ground is wet, but the overnight rain is moving away. The main line is well to our west. So many dry hours today with spotty showers. One batch expected midday and early afternoon. Most of the daylight hours will be dry.

Temperatures

Many are already starting in the 60s. It will be warm and push into the lower 70s this afternoon–> lasting until the squall line tonight.

Storm Animation

I will post a new hourly timeline simulation this afternoon

Friday Morning

Temperature Outlook

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