October 31 2019
Happy Halloween! Pardon the cliche, but the weather will be tricking us today. Temperatures will be warming into the 70s through this evening, then crash to wind chills in the 20s tomorrow morning. In between, winds will be increasing! If you have decorations or kids heading out this evening, it is important to note that winds will be 25 to 40+ mph from the south even a few hours before the storm line arrives. I am the farthest thing from a weather wimp and will be out with my son this evening, but there will be a chance for branches breaking and decorations flying around. Use your judgement. If I sense it’s getting bad, we will come in quickly.
Severe Storm Risk
An Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms for our region today, but most likely after 6 PM.
- Today: Rain Will Be Spotty At Times, Many Dry Hours
- Evening Wind: Gusts Increase 20 to 40+ mph Hours BEFORE The Intense Rain. Branches can break and decorations can fly around.
- Temperatures Warm To The Lower 70s
- Squall Line: Intense Storm Line Tracks Across Maryland AFTER 6 PM, /In Metro Areas Between 8 PM and 10 PM
- Storm Threat: Lightning, Top Wind Gusts Over 50 mph, Isolated Tornadoes
I am posting the evening conditions first for your interest. The daily weather is below.
As of now, it looks like we will get a few hours of a ‘lull’. Computer Models suggest between 9 PM and 10 PM will be the worst conditions in metro areas (later in So. MD and Eastern Shore). My concern has been verifying a little sooner like our last few systems. So this will be close.
This could arrive 1 to 2 hours earlier, so please check back for another update this afternoon
Comparing the NAM 3 Km to HRRR, and we can see the HRRR is faster passing Fredrick and hitting Westminster to York at 9 PM. But a few dry hours before this line arrives.
Notice the strong wind field well ahead of the storm line. Winds will be an issue long before the risk for the squall/ severe storm line/
Peak Wind gusts over 50 mph with the squall line
Local Weather Stats:
Thursday October 31, 2019 in Baltimore
Average High: 62ºF
Record High: 85ºF in 1946
Average Low: 41ºF
Record Low: 25ºF in 1966
Sunrise: 7:32 AM
Sunset 6:06 PM
*Daylight = 2:17 shorter than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 63ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
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The ground is wet, but the overnight rain is moving away. The main line is well to our west. So many dry hours today with spotty showers. One batch expected midday and early afternoon. Most of the daylight hours will be dry.
Many are already starting in the 60s. It will be warm and push into the lower 70s this afternoon–> lasting until the squall line tonight.
I will post a new hourly timeline simulation this afternoon
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media
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October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month
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Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it.
See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer
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