Wednesday October 30 2019

The Halloween storm may blow your mind, or your decorations away.  I have a matching costume with my son that might be appropriate in some way, but the weather still will be a challenge.  He put the pressure on me for this, so I have added a LOT of information here just in case you feel the same responsibility to your kids.

Rain is developing this evening and will last into the morning. Halloween day will have periods of rain AND dry hours as well. It will not be a complete washout. Temps will pump into the 70s for the evening thanks to strong winds that could gust 40 to 50 mph.  Then add the squall line, which will be a band of heavy rain and potential lightning.  That is expected later on, but I caution it may come in sooner. My concern is the trend for events to arrive sooner and may catch trick or treaters.  I know the few evening hours are of most importance and I am paying attention closely to that.

Lighting Forecast

 

I have done my best to highlight the weather we can see all the way through, but the worst weather is expected Thursday night. This could include a squall line with lightning, but please consider that trying to time out specific hours still needs a buffer. I have pointed out the bias of models with recent events arriving a little sooner. Consider that with the 10 PM time shown here.  It may verify an hour or two earlier.

*I would hedge my bets with an earlier time to start and finish trick or treating to play it safe!

*Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland may just have the wind issue for the evening as the squall line reaches those places later.

 

Storm Headlines

  • Rain Arrives This Evening Through Thursday Morning
  • Halloween Day: Rainy Periods But Breaks For A Few Hours (see the timelines below)
  • Halloween Evening: Warming to the 70s, Strong Winds, Then The Squall Line
  • The Squall Line Timeline Is Below. This May Bring Winds 20 to 50 mph, Lighting, and Heavy Rain
  • Friday Morning: Colder 30s With Wind Chill In The 20s, Snow In Western Maryland.

 

Storm Animation

This GFS Model is one version of how this will play out. I am showing this for the general idea of the bands of heavy rain and snow in the mountains to follow. The sliders below will give more detail.

 

Wednesday Evening Rain

Showers arriving this evening and will spread steady rain through Thursday morning.

Radar Simulation —> slider

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Halloween Day

Notice the band of rain arriving mid day. Timing this will help see if we need to adjust the timing (sooner) for the evening squall line.

Also note the better chance for more rain in the mountains and north in PA during the day.

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Halloween Evening Wind

A few dry hours late afternoon and early evening will come with strong winds over 20 mph gusting 40 to 50 mph

6 PM Thursday

 

 

8 PM Thursday

These winds will push warm temps into the 70s for most of our region. Behind the squall line temps tank into the 40s and 30s.

Winds

 

Lightning 

This model depiction shows the most likely lightning locations colored in orange and red. But stray bolts are possible in areas colored blue and green.   This is close to many metro areas, and if the trend of faster systems continues, then that 10 PM image up top could be swapped with this time frame and might catch the tail end of trick or treating.

I would hedge my bets with an earlier time to start and finish trick or treating to play it safe!

Halloween Evening – Friday Morning

Tracking the timing of the squall line is going to make or break the events outside.  I still caution that we have had a trend for system to arrive sooner. Here the NAM model shows the worst in metro Baltimore at 10 PM, but that might be off by an hour or two.

Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland may just have the wind issue for the evening as the squall line reaches those places later.

Yes, snow will fly and fall on Garrett County, Maryland. At this point a dusting to 1 inch is expected.

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Friday Morning

The shock may come AFTER Halloween when you wake up and it feels like winter.