Thursday October 31 2019

A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of the region until midnight. The squall line that may produce the worst weather is likely to arrive after trick or treating. See the timelines below.  But as a parent who has been planning to join my son out tonight, I question if it is a good idea. I am not sure if my neighborhood will stay on schedule. Why? Winds are already 15 to 30 mph this afternoon. They will be gusting over 40 mph this evening. Even before the worst rain or any other severe storm… That wind can force decorations to take flight, or branches to break.

I am far from a weather wimp, but kids will be out in the dark in costumes that might obstruct visibility. I had wanted to post a map when it was safe to be out, but now I must suggest caution and at your own risk.   Between model guidance and the fast bias I have identified with prior events, we can expect the worst between 7 PM and 10 PM.

Maybe it’s time to consider postponing until tomorrow.

 

Tornado Watch

 

As mentioned this morning, we have an enhanced risk for storms to turn severe.

 

Gusty Winds

Please consider the WIND will be an issue for the evening hours BEFORE the Squall Line. See that timeline and Windy Widget below the simulations

 

Rain Timelines

Here is a comparison of the NAM  3 Km and HRRR Models. The timing is similar. Still worth allowing an extra 1 hour buffer for the real event to possibly move faster.

NAM 3 Km Simulation —> slider

 

HRRR Model Simulation —> slider

 

Wind Timeline

 

Windy Widget

 

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Shining on with Smyth and their contribution, our team has raised over $95,000 for Just In Power Kids to provide free programs for kids in and post cancer treatment.

 

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October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month

Love Maryland Shirts and Hoodies

This shirt was designed by my ‘bonus’ daughter Jaiden. The hoodie has been the biggest hit, so our promotion is back this year. Join us to support the cause and show off your Love of Maryland

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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

 

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it.

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

 

Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September

 

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer

All proceeds will go to the Maryland Trek 6 total and Just In Power Kids programs

 

Just In Power Kids:

Proceeds go to our programs Providing FREE holistic care for kids in cancer treatment and up to 5 years post treatment and caregivers.

 

Shine On

Proceeds from all sales go to Just In Power Kids. Click the image to shop and show your support.