Thursday October 24 2019

A Frost Advisory was issued for some of the counties west of Baltimore. This includes Carroll, Howard, Frederick, and western Montgomery Counties. This is for areas that could experience their first frost to damage plants and end the growing season. I mentioned ‘some’ as the temperatures do vary with location and terrain. It’s the valleys and rural ares that tend to be colder in the morning than hill tops and more urban areas.

Morning Temperatures

How does this compare to years past? See the Typical First Frost/Freeze Maps

Headlines

Morning Frost
Afternoons: Sunny and mild 60s today and Friday
Weekend Rain: Saturday night and Sunday. Atmospheric Memory at play for Gulf moisture to head our way.

Morning Surface Weather

The next few days will be sunny and mild. Great for viewing the fall foliage entering peak color in the western and northern suburbs.

Atmospheric Memory: The next storm will look similar to last weekend. Cold air producing snow in Colorado will feed a new storm. Moisture from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is where Nestor came from last week. This may not get a name (only 20% chance from NHC), but it will follow the same track our way.

Local Weather Stats:

Thursday October 24, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 64ºF

Record High: 82ºF in 2001

Average Low: 43ºF

Record Low: 25ºF in 1969

Sunrise: 7:25 AM

Sunset 6:15 PM

*Daylight = 2:23 shorter than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 63ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Temperature Forecast

Thursday Afternoon

Friday Morning

Friday Afternoon

Weekend Rain

This continues to look like a dry Saturday, but some showers could develop by evening. The main rain will be Sunday morning through early afternoon. Then taper to showers as the storm departs in the evening.

Compare the European ECMWF model to the GFS Model storm timeline

European Model Simulation —> slider

[metaslider id=80758]

GFS Model Simulation Animation

Notice that after the first system this weekend, a second round of rain expected Tuesday.

Temperature Outlook

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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.