Sunday October 20 2019

Nestor was a tropical storm for about a day, but it left a trail of destruction with numerous tornadoes in Florida. The core Low is no longer tropical, but has a lot of rain that be with our region all day. The track appears to be a little north of initial forecast models. In fact the rain arrived a little earlier as well. Notes I will consider for future events into winter. All that matters now is that most of us will have rain all day long. Here’s how it should play out:

Weather Headlines

Sunday Soaker- Rain all day
Totals Around 1/2″, Up To 2″ In Southern MD
Temperatures Remain Near 50ºF, Warmer 60s In Heavy Rain Zone
More Rain Tuesday And Next Weekend

Morning Radar

The rain has moved in early and it is obviously the heavier rain will fall in southern Maryland.

SnapShot

A steady heavy rain most of the day around Washington/Annapolis, south and east. But some bands of moderate rain will extend into metro Baltimore later this morning and this afternoon.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon High Temperatures

Radar Simulation NAM 3 Km Model —> slider

Some heavy rain could push into central Maryland this afternoon. The heaviest is likely where temperatures reach the 60s to near 70ºF in lower Delmarva.

[metaslider id=80615]

Rainfall Total

The ECMWF Model is most realistic for totals

The NAM 3Km Model does appear to have it’s old convective feedback problem. That often overplays rain events. I’m showing this just for comparison and posterity. In winter, it should be noted that this may also overplay snow events. That’s when more pay close attention.

More Rain On The Way

Rain Animation

More rain will arrive Tuesday, then Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Temperature Outlook

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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.