Wednesday August 28 2019

This morning starts off warmer and more humid locally. It feels like summer again and there are areas of fog. A cold front will arrive with showers this afternoon and tonight, but they will be scattered as the appears to be losing strength. But we will get nicer weather tomorrow into the start of the holiday weekend.

 

Two Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Erin was recently named. It has winds of 40 mph and will remain well off of the coast. But this will keep the high waves and rip currents a factor for the beaches into the weekend.

Tropical Storm Dorian is a different story. The models have been wrong in their initialization and it looks like it will take a track on the EAST side of Puerto Rico. It has been struggling surrounded by dry air, but the track puts in in favorable conditions to possibly become a hurricane before reaching Florida this weekend. More on this below.

 

Local Weather Stats:

Wednesday August 28, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  84ºF

Record High: 101ºF in 1948

Average  Low: 64ºF

Record Low:  48ºF in 1986

Sunrise: 6:31 AM

Sunset 7:43 PM  

*Daylight = 2:25 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 77ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

 

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Today: Plan for scattered showers, chance 60% AFTER 1 PM. There will be some embedded thunder mixed in, but they do not appear to turn severe.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon High Temperatures

Radar Simulation —> slider

[metaslider id=79225]

 

Tropics

Tropical Storm Dorian

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 63.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Forecast
The shift on the track will allow for TS Dorian to experience less wind sheer so it can intensify.

Intensity:
There expectation for a favorable set up, most models bring this into hurricane intensity AFTER passing Puerto Rico and crossing the northern 
Bahamas. August 28 weather tropical storm dorian intensity morning Wednesday

 


Spaghetti Model Plot

The majority of computer models bring this between Daytona and Jacksonville by Sunday. Since the modeling was so wrong just a day ago, I would still hedge my bets on the right side of this forecast spread.


National Hurricane Center Track


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

 

Tropical Storm Erin

This storm will impact our beaches with high waves and rip currents. But the storm will remain out in the Atlantic.

 

Temperature Outlook

With the tropical storms not directly impacting us, we will return and remain back in the late summer warmth into next week.

 

 

 

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