Saturday May 18 2019

We broke our streak of consecutive Fridays with rain at 15. Now we are about to break the cool and wet spring and jump into summer. The forecast maps here are just a guide. I think the models are having a hard time depicting where the warmest temperatures will be and the location of storms. What is important to take away will be the broader potential of severe storms. But Preakness in Baltimore might just miss out.

Saturday Weather

A front is still draped right over our region. It looks harmless now, but will be a focus for where storms may ride later today AND how the heat will set up across our region.

Severe Storm Outlook Today

Severe Storm Outlook Sunday

Local Weather Stats For May 18, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 74ºF

Record High: 97ºF in 1962

Average Low: 53ºF

Record Low: 35ºF in 1973

Sunrise: 5:50 AM

Sunset 8:15 PM

*Daylight = 1:44 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 64ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Weather Forecast Below

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Saturday Afternoon

Preakness in Baltimore may miss the storm potential. Notice how Baltimore will be on the edge of much warmer temperatures.

Sunday: Summer Heat And Stronger Storms

Afternoon Highs:

I think this model is underestimating the heat reaching Baltimore. I think we will all be in the mid 80s to near 90ºF.

Sunday Storm Potential Timeline —> simulation

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Looking Ahead

A large heat dome will develop across the southeastern US. The location and size of this will determine if ewe get in on to or remain on the edge like this weekend’s temps. That could make the difference between getting into the 90s or staying in the 80s with a greater risk of storms.

Temperature Outlook

I have had some people remark how different the outlook has been almost each day. This all depends on the heat dome/ridge to our south. Either we get in on it, which history suggest. Or we stay on the northern edge with more risk of storms like this weekend’s set up. I am leaning towards the heat.

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