Tuesday February 26 Evening Update

The winds have settled done and the cold air has settled in. The next weather event of interest for the week will be on Friday morning. It will be a light event with possible minor impact. But that has been enough to raise the concern and fill my inbox with questions about plans.

The afternoon model package may have looked unimpressive. Initially this looked like a snow event with the potential for a dusting to 2 inches. Not all models see this the same, and that is still the case. But before losing interest, and definitely before blowing things out of proportion, I wanted to show the latest look.

Weather Animation:

Friday Morning: Light snow
Saturday: Rain

There will be some light snow Friday morning and likely done by noon. Comparing a few models, there was still a spread of how this may behave. The range is from just a little to just enough to possibly impact the roads for a few hours.

The GFS model showed no accumulation and the European (ECMWF) looked less impressive. But the NAM 12 Km still has a decent event.

Friday Morning 7 AM Model Snapshots

American GFS Model

European Model

The spotty snow is much less than the previous model (shown below). This model does not often abruptly change like this… So I really think we need to see how the overnight projection looks.

Earlier European Model Run

NAM 12 Km Model

This model does have a tendency to overdo some events.

Notes

I don’t like to abruptly change my outlook with one model run. We need to see how these behave tonight to see if there is a trend to less or we are back to earlier thoughts.
I need to point out that the earlier thoughts were for between a dusting to 2 inches. Still not a big event, but potential for some impact.
I will have the next model run in my morning report. Then we can compare and look for trends one way or the other…

FITF

The first half of March looks colder than average and more chances for snow to revisit is well with reason.

Temperature Outlook