Friday February 8 2019

As the sun came out today, that was the leading edge of a cold front.  It may not seem like it with the sun that warmed many areas back into the  50s. But those winds will turn colder this weekend. The weekend should keep many areas near or below freezing, so the ground will have plenty of time to cool before the two part winter event arrives.

This post shows the the latest look at how this storm may play out. It is important to keep in mind, it has not even formed yet.  But the snow developing in Texas south of Dallas is where we are watching.


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Common Storm Questions:

What can we expect?

This set up is missing a Greenland Blocking. So it is very likely we mix over with ice and rain. Also, typical snow and ice boundaries with set up impacting northwestern suburbs more.

  • Weekend: Mostly dry and cooler. Saturday and Sunday may stay below freezing for most of the region. Wind chills in the teens and 20s.
  • Sunday overnight into Monday Morning: Light snow mixing with ice south in the morning. Then a warming thaw with a break after noon.
  • Monday Evening Snow redevelops. It will mix to ice in for central and southern parts of our region
  • Tuesday:  Morning snow and ice turning to rain from south to north. Northern areas will remain icy into the evening.


How much snow will we get?

I do not give snow amounts more than two days away. There are too many uncertainties. I already mentioned the two part event. But also pinning down the timing and placement of the snow/ice/and rain lines is not locked in yet.


Will my flight be affected?

Two weeks ago my wife flew out of town for business. She left during a Wind Advisory. She returned in our arctic blast while it was snowing. Neither flight was delayed, but I thought it was easy to expect they would be. I have learned that I do not know how the airport will be impacted.


Forecast Maps

Here is a look at the Canadian GEM Model and European (ECMWF Model wide and close views). You can see the similarity of both models, but the classic wide variety of weather across our region.



European ECMWF Model

Wide View —> slider

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Closer View —> slider

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As with most winter events, as the storm actually develops the timing and track will become more certain.

I expect to have a better handle on snow and ice by tomorrow evening.


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Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media


FITF and SnowStix 


Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History