Saturday February 9 2019

The strong winds have brought back winter in a hurry. The warmth from mid week has been erased as the ground is chilling enough to support stickage from the next winter weather event. We are expecting to have the first flakes arrive Sunday night and into Monday. But looking at the weather map this morning, the ice in the deep south is not very organized. This is along a strong southern jet stream that will lift our way. But the storm has not formed yet. That makes locking the snow, ice, and rain line difficult. But there’s a good idea shown below.

Daily Weather Highlights

Maps for these events are below.

Today: Dry and cooler. More clouds south, more sun north but they will spread across the sky. Wind chills in the teens and 20s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, chill, and dry.
Sunday overnight into Monday Morning: Some light snow begins to spread after 8 PM
Monday: Warming with light mix of rain and snow.
Monday night: Cold air drops south. Snow mixing to ice with extensive icing west and north of the cities.
Tuesday: Gradual warming to rain for most. Heavy rain in the afternoon for the cities. Moderate to heavy icing may linger well inland into the afternoon and evening.

Is it too early to get excited for a winter storm?

This thing has not formed yet! So the location and timing is up for debate.
Agreement: Some snow Monday, but then more impact snow and ice on Tuesday morning.
The timing of the heavier snow, ice, and rain I what is not locked in yet.
The biggest impact will be icing! The snow will be light to moderate in the coldest areas.

Local Weather Stats For February 9, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 44ºF

Record High: 68ºF in 2001

Average Low: 26ºF

Record Low: 8ºF in 1899

*Record Snow: 5.0″ in 1936

Sunrise: 7:05 AM

Sunset 5:36 PM

*Daylight = 2:16 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 36ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Today: Cold Air And Chilly Winds

Morning Temps

Wind Chills

Afternoon Highs

Sunday:

Storm Stuff:

There is a lot of agreement but some details to be sorted out.
First, check out the Canadian GEM Model animation. This shows the snow arriving late Sunday night, then the snow and ice developing Monday and Tuesday morning. The transition to heavy rain around the Chesapeake Bay on Tuesday.
The NAM 3 KM Model ha done a good job with our winter events. Her is shows the arrival Sunday night. I am skeptical of the lack of moisture Monday morning. This contradicts the European Model shown below.

Storm Animation

Sunday Night Simulation —> slider

NAM 3 Km

[metaslider id=72743]

Storm Simulation —> slider

European Model

[metaslider id=72762]

Storm Notes:

The snow will be a minor impact on Monday morning.

The biggest impact will be icing Monday night and Tuesday morning!

Faster change to rain along and south of I-95

Longer snow and ice impact northwest of the big cities

In Maryland: Northern Harford, Baltimore, Carroll, western Howard, Frederick, and Washington Counties
Southern Pennsylvania: including Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

FITF and SnowStix