Thursday February 7 2019

We are still on the cool side of this frontal boundary, but it is trying to move back north. The result will bring some light scattered showers, but most of the day will be dry. While there will be some warmer air tomorrow morning, we will cool back down this weekend. Then we set the stage for a new winter weather event. I do have FITF for more snow, but the way this will play out is still uncertain. What I do believe is that we need to expect some impact from snow Sunday night into Monday and then more snow and ice on Tuesday.

Daily Weather Highlights

Maps for these events are below.

Today: Mostly dry, just a few showers. Temps bear 50ºF
Friday: High temps by noon. Mid day rain, then cooling
Weekend: Mostly dry and cooler
Sunday night into Monday: Some light snow
Monday evening into Tuesday: Snow mixing to ice then rain

Is it too early to get excited for a winter storm?

This thing has not formed yet! So the location and timing is up for debate.
Agreement: Some snow Monday, but then more impact snow and ice on Tuesday.
The timing of the heavier snow, ice, and rain I what is not locked in yet.
Check out this contrast and see the maps below

Euro

This shows the largest snow impact by sunrise Tuesday. Then rain Tuesday afternoon.

1 AM Tue	1 PM Tue

FV3-GFS

This model shows the storm developing Tuesday afternoon and night.

See more maps below

Local Weather Stats For February 7, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 43ºF

Record High: 72ºF in 2017

Average Low: 25ºF

Record Low: 6ºF in 1895

*Record Snow: 10.1″ in 1967

Sunrise: 7:07 AM

Sunset 5:33 PM

*Daylight = 2:14 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 36ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Morning Snapshot

Temperatures

That front really stands out….

30s in PA
40s in central MD
50s in VA and WV

Morning Radar Loop

Radar Simulation —> slider

[metaslider id=72618]

Afternoon High Temps

Friday

Skipping To The Storm

Compare the timing of snow, ice, and rain between the European (ECMWF) and American Model (FV3-GFS)

How Much? It is too early for anyone to suggest how much we could get. Especially since the timing, track, and transition to ice and snow are not certain.

I would still keep your plans in mind to possibly be affected Sunday night into Tuesday night.

European Model —> slider

This model shows light snow Sunday night and Monday. Then the main storm Tuesday morning turning to rain Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.

[metaslider id=72637]

Storm Animation: FV3- GFS

This model shows the snow and ice just developing on Tuesday, then turn to rain by Wednesday morning.

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Temperature Outlook

Notes:

Friday’s high temperature should be before noon.

Monday and Tuesday: The model shows highs above freezing, but look at the lows at 31ºF. Looking deeper, this model supports the snow with colder temps Monday night into mid day Tuesday. So the highs are before and after the snow portion shown in the slider above.