Friday January 25 2019

You may have noticed the colder winds today, but that is nothing compared to what is on the way next week. The weather pattern has the hallmarks of epic cold that will challenge records for a few days. We have had intense cold air quite a few times over the past four years, and many were associated with the Polar Vortex. This is simply a fact of a weather pattern that sometimes takes the core cold form the North Pole and drives it due southern across Canada into the northern US. This will happen early next week.

Here’s a look at the upper air circulation next Wednesday morning. I’ve highlighted the forecast track, which keeps it north of our region, and keeps the coldest of the air to our north. But we will get in on the action and it should come with a burst of snow to lay down the white carpet.

Polar Vortex

Snow Burst Ahead Of Arctic Air

This is a quick post skipping the weekend weather and just focusing on the chance of snow ahead of the arctic cold blast. Here is a look at how the European Model sees the arrival of the arctic air. The update here is that a wave of Low Pressure may form along the front, which will enhance the moisture along it. This is seen for our region Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Snow Timeline –> slider

Snow totals: It’s too early to confirm, but this pattern supports a dusting to 2 inches.

[metaslider id=71866]

Canadian GEM Animation

This model agrees with the notion of enhance snow along the arctic front. If only for a few hours, enough for minor accumulation.

Will We See Record Cold?

Temperature Outlooks

Let’s first take a look at some climate date for Baltimore at BWI for next week:

January 30 (Wed):

42ºF = Normal High; 25ºF = Normal Low

16ºF in 1966 = Record Cold Max Temperature *(Chance to break this)

-4ºF in 1873 = Record Min Temperature *(Chance to break this)

January 31 (Thur):

42ºF = Normal High; 25ºF = Normal Low

22ºF in 1948 = Record Cold Max Temperature *(Chance to break this)

+4ºF in 1966 = Record Min Temperature *(Chance to break this)

February 1 (Fri):

42ºF = Normal High; 25ºF = Normal Low

18ºF in 1971 = Record Cold Max Temperature

+7ºF in 1965 = Record Min Temperature *(Chance to break this)

February 2 (Sat):

42ºF = Normal High; 25ºF = Normal Low

17ºF in 1881 = Record Cold Max Temperature

+1ºF in 1961 = Record Min Temperature *(Chance to break this)

Temperature Forecast Outlook

Temperature Anomaly

The purple colors that show up Friday morning mean we will have temperers 16 to 20 degrees (F) below normal. That is what takes climatological low temperature in the mid 20s (for Baltimore) down to the mid to lower single digits at best.

Notes:

The latest modeling supports:

Some snow with the arctic front. Some accumulation and icy conditions likely Wednesday morning.
Cold air may get reinforcement and hang around for three to four days.

There is time to track and adjust this timing. There is also time to lock in on how much snow may fall. The main purpose is that this will be an abrupt change and likely to be here by the middle next week.

Lots of fun to follow leading up to this.

SnowStix

We have added a bunch of new color options