Tuesday January 22 2019

It is cold this morning, but it may feel better. It’s all relative. The wind has eased so despite many thermometers reading single digits and teens, it is more bearable. This afternoon we will get a little breezy to brig back some chill, but not nearly as cold as yesterday was. The next storm will arrive as the cold air retreats and it appears most of that will be rain. Some spots may start with sleet and end with flakes mixed in, but otherwise it will be a rain event.

The outlook shows another storm at the end of the weekend into Monday. Below is another example why I do not like to show storms beyond 5 days away as the computer modeling is not able to handle that well.

Morning Temperatures

Mostly lower teens. Single digits in Southern PA and west of Westminster.

Closer Look at Metro Baltimore and Southern PA

Baltimore at 6 AM

Temperature = 13ºF
Wind Gusts: Calm
Wind Chill = N/A

Local Weather Stats For January 21, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 41ºF

Record High: 69ºF in 1927

Average Low: 24ºF

Record Low: -7ºF in 1984 *Tied coldest ever measured in Baltimore

*Record Snow: 12.3 in 1987

Sunrise: 7:21 AM

Sunset 5:15 PM

*Daylight = 1:44 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 35ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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This Afternoon

A breeze will develop, so there will be a wind chill later.

Next Storm

Animation: Overall this looks like a rain event. But the start may have some sleet and the end could mix with some snowflakes. In between, some thunder possible Thursday morning. See the key time frames below.

Key Time Frames

Overnight: Upper Level Warm Front could bring brief sleet

Wednesday Afternoon

There may be some showers ahead of the main storm. These may mix with sleet, but they look scattered and unorganized.

Thursday Morning

Temps may start in the 50s, but a strong cold front will bring heavy rain and maybe some thunder. Then falling temps into the afternoon.

Thursday Afternoon

There may be some cold air mixing snow or sleet in the NW hills. At this time it does no appear to be enough for any concern.

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Weekend Storm?

This is a prime example as to why I DO NOT like to pounce on the first look of a storm from computer models. Compare the Monday morning view from the FV3-GFS here. The OLD forecast from Monday afternoon. The New forecast was overnight. With how dramatically that coastal storm shifts east with little to no impact.

Older Forecast Showed A Strong Storm	Newer Forecast Shifts It Too Far East

Outlook: Jet Stream

We will be dominated by cold air (blue) pattens into February. There will be plenty of supply, but like above, no guarantee of storms at this time. I expect it will be active and worth watching for our winter prime time show.

Temperature Outlook