Friday January 11 2019

Regardless of how big or small a snow event is expected to be, I really like when there agreement among sources. I am one source and I show you many computer models. In addition, the National Weather Service is a group of meteorologists (still working during the government shutdown) putting out their forecast. We don’t always have the same outlook, but when we do I think it increases the message.

This morning I posted the Winter Storm Watch Map (see below). For metro areas, I expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued shortly. There may be some spot near Washington DC that could qualify for a warning with more snow. When that is issue depends on staffing at the NWS Office, but when you see it do not be surprised.

Confidence: High

I see we are in for a general 2 to 4 inches in central Maryland. There may be lower amounts north in PA and more in Southern Maryland.

The only adjustment I see could be overachieving IF the main storm on Sunday is better organized and closer.

Severity Index: New Experimental Product from NWS

I wanted to show this product and get your thoughts. This shows a large area of minor impact with some metro DC and southern Maryland in the Moderate range. Considering The weekend timeframe AND expectation for 2 to 4 inches, I think the moderate impact area should be expanded.

The update snow simulation timelines are posted below..

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Snow Timeline Notes:

Saturday Afternoon:

Flurries or light snow. The onset between 2 and 4 PM west of the cities depends on how dry the air is. I see snow creeping in on radar, but it could be virga.

Saturday Evening:

Snowing in most areas around and after sunset. Maybe a few hours later in Southern PA.

Travel will be impacted and I expect many events will cancel. Snow will get heavier late evening and overnight.

Sunday Morning:

Most accumulation will be done central Maryland and north between sunrise and noon.

Some snow may linger later.

Southern Maryland will continue to get snow into the afternoon.

Sunday Night/Monday Morning

The only issue I see on roads will be late cleanup (some areas limit crews for cut down on overtime) and refreezing at night.

Here is a new product they posted this morning about their confidence and the impact.

Snow Simulation Saturday —> slider

[metaslider id=70569]

Snow Simulation Sunday —> slider

[metaslider id=70586]

Snow Total Forecast

This is close to my first call map I showed this morning. I went higher in the mountains and Southern Maryland.

My Call For Snowfall

A: 6 to 8 inches in the mountains
B: 3 to 6 inches Southern VA to southern MD. This range is due to any mixing or rain early, but more snow later. Coastal Areas will get rain, but end with a burst of snow. I included them in this zone with the chance to catch up at the finish.
C: 2 to 4 inches. Metro Washington, Annapolis, Baltimore, to York PA
D: Dusting to 2 inches. These areas will be on the northern edge and dry air form the arctic high needs to be considered eroding away what falls.

NWS Snow Forecast

Agreement on 2 to 4 inches with southern Maryland and central VA int he 4 to 6 inch range.

Southern PA: General 2 inches expected

Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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Central VA may be the big winners

Winter Storm Threat

This is a new product from NWS. The higher confidence for impact is in the normal colder inland zones. But the impact all appears to be slight.

Personally I would suggest a moderate impact given it’s on the weekend and many areas in metro areas could be between 2 to 4 inches.

Winter Storm Watch:

This will be update with Advisories and Warnings during the afternoon.

Snow Day Kit

NEW: Individual Items Are Now Available A La Carte.

Our ritual the night before a storm is finally in one kit. Maybe if more Maryland kids had this, the storm would reach us 🙂

This includes a very soft raglan Tee printed inside out with #FITF AND the check list, #FITF spoon for under your pillow, ice cube tray with snowflake shapes, chalk, a #FITF wrist-band, a mini SnowStix, and a bag to carry it all in.
This will also help us give a free Snow Day Kit to each of the Just In Power Kids.

New Partner

I’d like to welcome Buchanan Kia of Westminster: Now a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019. Soon we will be showing you why we developed this relationship with a local business that my wife and I sincerely trust.