Saturday December 22 2018

Today is the first full day of winter which means daylight is now getting longer. We bottomed out, but only gain one second today. However that will be maxed out as we will get much more sunshine. Perhaps good we have an easy day as the partial government shutdown starts and impacts NOAA and NWS. Today is also Super Saturday or Panic Saturday where many get their late Christmas shopping done. The good news is that the weather will be contrast to what we had yesterday, but that brings us back to reality. However the dry air and sun will come with gusty winds. The trend will be chilly but dry through the weekend with a small system Sunday night and Monday. Then, Christmas itself looks quiet and cold.

We will take a little look at the extended outlook into New Year 2019 below, but first, here is the breakdown.


Government Shutdown

Why would a weather report mention this? Well, NOAA and The National Weather Service are Government Agencies. According to the government:

Certain “excepted” employees who are considered critical to public safety, like hurricane hunters or operational weather forecasters, will be required to report to work, even without the guarantee of pay. But those non essential people make up about 50% of the work force and they will be sent home.

There was a measure put in place for retroactive pay when the budget is resolved… But that will not get the next paycheck delivered if it is Congress can not resolve this quickly.

A few NWS offices have made mention of their dedication on Twitter:





Our local NWS Office has not made a mention online, but they will be operating as well… However some services might be missing. The last shutdown did affect some computer systems which limited information that was delivered to some websites and mobile apps.


I will continue to provide information here as my access to computer modeling, data come from a wide blanket of sources and my forecasts are my own.





Local Weather Stats For December 22 in Baltimore

The Winter Solstice today!

Average High:  43ºF

Record High: 71ºF in 2013

Average  Low: 27ºF

Record Low:  4ºF in 1989

                         *Record Snow:  5.9″ in 1908

Sunrise: 7:23 AM

Sunset 4:47 PM 

*Daylight = 0:01 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 44ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 


Rain Record Update (Through Friday)


Morning Set Up


Satellite Loop

Forecast Clouds/Sun

The bulk of clouds will be with the snow showers in the mountains.  Mostly clear, but some fair weather clouds could pass by.

Wind Gusts









High Temperature


Outlook: Rain Showers Sunday Night/Monday Morning

Christmas Day

Do you remember when I showed you a chance for light snow between the 24th and 26th? That was on the European Model and it was alone. That system is nonexistent as High Pressure appears to be in control. This further proves why even the best computer model is not perfect and why I do not trust long range map projections….



Temperature Outlook 


North Atlantic Oscillation

This is the pattern near Greenland that we track for pattern potential in the eastern US. A Negative index is a signal that it will be colder and stormy for us.

We saw this trend in November for early December and it was less intense than expected. Now we have reason to believe there is more support to dislodge the Polar Vortex and send very cold air into the eastern US in January.  I will have more details on this over the weekend.


Snow Day Kit

Our ritual the night before a storm is finally in one kit. Maybe if more Maryland kids had this, the storm would reach us 🙂

  • This includes a very soft raglan Tee printed inside out with #FITF AND the check list,  #FITF spoon for under your pillow, ice cube tray with snowflake shapes, chalk, a #FITF wrist-band, a mini SnowStix, and a bag to carry it all in.
  • New Orders are likely to be delivered after the holiday.
  • This will also help us give a free Snow Day Kit to each of the Just In Power Kids.



FITF and SnowStix Stores are now OPEN


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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History 




Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

We are giving 10% of each sale to Just In Power Kids: Providing FREE holistic care for pediatric oncology patients.