Thursday December 13 2018

It’s been a while since we had rain. The headline here could be that Baltimore has not had measurable rain in 11 days, since December 2. But that is about change and go figure it would happen on a Friday into the weekend. This brings us back to the old Fall pattern that includes heavy rain. As a result, NWS has issued a Flood Watch for all of central Maryland and into eastern Virginia.

Added To The Record

The expectation of over 2 inches of rain will increase our already record wet year.

Rain Forecast: What To Expect

Rain will expand from south to north Friday afternoon and evening. It may be at its heaviest during the day Saturday. Thanks to an upper level system, this storm will linger into Sunday only to be followed by colder air Monday (which I still think may bring snow showers to parts of our area). The net result could bring between 1 and 3 inches of rain to the area.

Here is a look at two models run expectations.

The European ECMWF has

1.5″ to 2″ range in Baltimore and central Maryland
1.1″ in York PA
1.3″ to 1.6″ across southern Maryland to Ocean City

The NAM 3 Km Model is much more aggressive:

2.7″+ in Baltimore and central Maryland
1.4″ in York PA
2″ to 3.1″ Maryland to Ocean City

Rain Timeline–> sliders

Here is the NAM break down

Friday:

Arrival mid afternoon making a wet evening

[metaslider id=69581]

Saturday:

Moderate to heavy rain at any point in the day.
This is the most likely time to have flooding. We could have some claps of thunder.

[metaslider id=69598]

Sunday: Showers will linger under the upper low as shown in the animation below.

Storm Animation

FV3 GFS

Is This A Hint For Snow?

On the bright side, if you anxious for winter weather… we might have some thunder. The old Weather Folklore saying supports: “If in winter you hear thunder, snow will follow in a week or under”.

FITF and SnowStix Stores are now OPEN