11 AM Tuesday October 9

Category 2 Hurricane Michael is fully utilizing the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. As of the 11 AM update from the National Hurricane Center, winds are now 110 mph and it is moving to the North at 12 mph. This is a very dangerous situation as the storm is growing in a hurry and may peak just as it makes landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast Wednesday. This is likely to be a Category 3 Major Hurricane (over 115 mph winds) later today. The satellite loops below support that strengthening.

Hurricane Force Winds extend 35 miles form the center

Tropical Storm Force Winds extend 185 miles from the center.

This Life-Threatening situation has three factors

  • Storm Surge (may reach 12 Ft high)
  • Heavy Rain up to 12 inches
  • Winds: Category 3 would 115 mph or higher

Satellite Loops

Visible Satellite


Infrared Stellite



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina


Storm Surge Potential

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

Wider View


Clouds well ahead of Michale are reaching the Maryland mountains this morning. This may produce some late day showers.. but rain will arrive Wednesday evening into Thursday.


Forecast Track

Important notes:

  • Florida will get hit the hardest. This will be very destructive from surge, wind speed, and rain flooding.
  • Hurricane Michael will weaken to a Tropical Storm before reaching South Carolina.
  • It will NOT stall, but increase in speed.
  • The track stays south and weaken when it gets closer to Maryland but it could still produce some severe storms and isolated tornadoes.
  • It will be moving away by Friday morning.



GFS Model Forecast Rain Timeline

A stronger Micheal actually pulls the track to the right… or east. That will be devastating to the areas hit by Florence in September, but better news for us in the Mid Atlantic. The heaviest rain may reach Southern Maryland and Ocean City… but closer to Baltimore and north to York PA the rain will be more from a passing cold front.

Here is a comparison of two main global models not agreeing on the track. The GFS (America) Model has it closer to Maryland while the ECMWF (European) Model has it farther south with a sharper turn.

GFS Model (Closer) European Model (Farther South)


Rainfall Potential

Both models shows the heavy rain from Michael reaching as far north as Ocean City and possibly Delaware. But locally our rain in central MD and PA wil be form the cold front pushing Michael off of the coast.


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